Balgarianovinite.com The average annual inflation in Bulgaria is expected to reach 4.3% this year, while the annual increase in consumer prices is projected to amount to 5.2% by the end of 2026, according to the spring macroeconomic forecast of the Finance Ministry, published on its website.
At the same time, the real growth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to slow to 2.6% in 2026. The Ministry has revised its inflation forecast upward and its GDP growth expectations downward compared with the autumn edition of its macroeconomic forecast, due to the economic fallout of the military conflict in the Middle East.
By comparison, in the autumn edition of the forecast, the Ministry of Finance expected the average annual inflation (according to the European HICP) to be 3.5% this year, and annual inflation at the end of the period to slow to 3.3%. GDP growth was expected to reach 2.7% in 2026.
“The military actions in the Middle East, which began on February 28, 2026, have noticeable economic consequences and significantly impact the current macroeconomic forecast,” the Ministry said.
The main negative consequence of these events is the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which is of key importance for international trade, global prices of crude oil and natural gas, as well as the prices of other raw materials.
The impact of the crisis in the Middle East on the Bulgarian economy will be reflected in higher inflation and lower real GDP growth in 2026 compared to the indicators in the autumn macroeconomic forecast, the document states.
In the latest edition of the forecast, the Ministry of Finance expects GDP growth to reach 2.5% in 2027, while for the period 2028–2029 economic growth is projected to remain within the range of 2.5–2.6%. By comparison, in the autumn macroeconomic forecast, GDP growth for the period 2027–2028 was expected to be in the range of 2.5–2.4%.
According to the spring edition of the forecast, average annual inflation in 2027 is expected to be 3.8%, after which it will slow to 2.5% over the following two years. In the previous edition of the forecast, average annual inflation was expected to be 2.9% in 2027 and 2.5% in 2028.
In addition to the baseline scenario, the Finance Ministry has also considered an alternative development of the external environment. It assumes that disruptions in international trade resulting from the military conflict will continue beyond the second quarter of 2026. A simulation has been conducted with higher prices for Brent crude oil and natural gas in Europe compared to the baseline scenario.
The results show that in 2026, inflation in Bulgaria would be higher by 1 percentage point, while real GDP growth would be lower by 0.2 percentage points compared to the baseline scenario.
For the purposes of the simulation, it is assumed that the disruptions in international trade caused by the military conflict will persist after the second quarter of the year. As a result, the average price of crude oil is expected to be slightly above USD 100 per barrel in 2026, representing an increase of 22.1% compared to the baseline scenario. Under this scenario, the price of natural gas is expected to reach around EUR 67 per MWh, or 40.7% higher than in the baseline scenario in 2026. Finance Ministry Revises Inflation, GDP Projections for 2026 Due to Middle East Conflict 2026 THE NEWS FROM BULGARIA – NEWS AGENCY 2009-2025 2026-04-03 16:04:11 Latest news World news Country news Most important news latest news most important latest of the day Justice Petar Nizamov Feathers Petar Nizamov- Feathers Justice bg iustitia.bg iustitia iusticia usticia investigation Burgas Bulgaria news news of the last hour news of the day news of today Bulgaria news The news from Bulgaria blitz news top news most important most commented latest news Boyko Borisov news weather coronavirus news news weather facebook youtube facebook instagram news today news of the last minutes news today today news news bg news leading news hot news bg news site for news all news news bg news of the last hour latest latest news bg news of today news today news today news of the last hour latest news today news bg news news 24 hours news vesti bg novini news world bird bg bivol bg bivol trud bg novini latest news today novinite bg news hello bulgaria political party coat of arms delyan peevski scandalous Bulgarian National Television Free Europe Television scandal exclusive live tv live right now tv tv online tv program bg live now tv news online tv online live court Burgas court Burgas district court Burgas court Burgas district court Burgas district court Burgas appellate court Burgas prosecutor Burgas prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Prosecutor General Ivan Geshev Prosecutor Geshev Tsatsarov Ministry of Internal Affairs Burgas ODMR Burgas ODPR Burgas police Burgas district police Burgas prosecutor Tsatsarov SGS cases Varna court chairman of the SGS court decisions on civil cases decisions on cases Plovdiv court decision of the court decisions cases Varna court criminal cases district district court decisions work in the court SGS chairman of the SGS judges Sofia court post judges Plovdiv court Plovdiv judges Plovdiv Supreme Court Inspectorate Supreme Court Supreme Judicial Council lawyer lawyer criminal cases lawyer civil cases lawyer marriage cases lawyer administrative criminal law criminal process civil law civil process administrative law constitutional law