Balgarianovinite.com Annual inflation is projected to accelerate to 4% at the end of 2026, while average annual inflation is expected to reach 3.7% this year and 3.2% in both 2027 and 2028, according to the baseline forecast in the latest issue of the Economic Review of the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB), published on the Central Bank’s website on Wednesday.
According to the baseline forecast, real GDP growth will gradually slow over the projection period, from 3% in 2026 to 2.8% in 2028.
The BNB specified that the analysis is based on data as of March 19, 2026, and does not fully reflect the effects of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, including disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and rising energy commodity prices.
В анализа се отбелязва, in view of the elevated uncertainty stemming from the military conflict in the Middle East, the baseline forecast is complemented by an adverse and a severe scenario to illustrate possible macroeconomic effects in the event of shocks of varying intensity and duration on energy product supply and prices. Under the adverse scenario, average annual inflation is higher than in the baseline projections by 0.7 percentage points in 2026, by 1.4 percentage points in 2027 and by 0.6 percentage points in 2028. Under the severe scenario, simulations show that headline inflation is higher than in the baseline forecast by 1.2 percentage points in 2026, 3.4 percentage points in 2027 and 2.3 percentage points in 2028, reflecting stronger indirect and second-round effects.
Bulgaria’s real GDP growth in 2025 was 3.2% (3.1%, according to non-seasonally adjusted data). Private consumption continued to be the main driver behind economic activity growth in 2025, while net exports had a negative contribution. Fiscal policy directly impacted GDP growth through the increase in government consumption and investments, and indirectly through increased social transfers to households and strong growth in employee compensation expenditure in the general government sector.
Labour market conditions remained tight in 2025. Employment rose by 2.1% (2.2%, according to non-seasonally adjusted data), recording its largest increase since 2008, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. While labour shortages started to ease in the second half of 2025, they remained historically high and continued to exert upward pressure on compensation per employee. In 2025, it increased by 10.2% (10.4%, according to non-seasonally adjusted data), with its growth rate exceeding domestic inflation and contributing to the increase in household income in real terms.
Annual inflation in Bulgaria, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), stood at 2.1% in February 2026, compared to 3.5% in December 2025. The decline in inflation was mainly impacted by the base effect related to the substantial price increases in some goods and services in early 2025, as well as the transport fuels price decrease in the first two months of the year. The most significant contributor to the growth in consumer prices as of February 2026 was the food group, followed by that of services. At the same time, the domestic macroeconomic environment continued to have a pro-inflationary impact through rising unit labour costs and strong private consumption. As a result of the escalating tensions in the Middle East, crude oil prices in international markets climbed significantly in March, and this is expected to push up transport fuel prices in Bulgaria in the following months. Annual Inflation to Accelerate to 4% at End of 2026, Says Central Bank’s Economic Review 2026 THE NEWS FROM BULGARIA – NEWS AGENCY 2009-2025 2026-04-15 16:45:00 Latest news World news Country news Most important news latest news most important latest of the day Justice Petar Nizamov Feathers Petar Nizamov- Feathers Justice bg iustitia.bg iustitia iusticia usticia investigation Burgas Bulgaria news news of the last hour news of the day news of today Bulgaria news The news from Bulgaria blitz news top news most important most commented latest news Boyko Borisov news weather coronavirus news news weather facebook youtube facebook instagram news today news of the last minutes news today today news news bg news leading news hot news bg news site for news all news news bg news of the last hour latest latest news bg news of today news today news today news of the last hour latest news today news bg news news 24 hours news vesti bg novini news world bird bg bivol bg bivol trud bg novini latest news today novinite bg news hello bulgaria political party coat of arms delyan peevski scandalous Bulgarian National Television Free Europe Television scandal exclusive live tv live right now tv tv online tv program bg live now tv news online tv online live court Burgas court Burgas district court Burgas court Burgas district court Burgas district court Burgas appellate court Burgas prosecutor Burgas prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Prosecutor General Ivan Geshev Prosecutor Geshev Tsatsarov Ministry of Internal Affairs Burgas ODMR Burgas ODPR Burgas police Burgas district police Burgas prosecutor Tsatsarov SGS cases Varna court chairman of the SGS court decisions on civil cases decisions on cases Plovdiv court decision of the court decisions cases Varna court criminal cases district district court decisions work in the court SGS chairman of the SGS judges Sofia court post judges Plovdiv court Plovdiv judges Plovdiv Supreme Court Inspectorate Supreme Court Supreme Judicial Council lawyer lawyer criminal cases lawyer civil cases lawyer marriage cases lawyer administrative criminal law criminal process civil law civil process administrative law constitutional law