Balgarianovinite.com The Bulgarian economy will grow by 2% in 2026, by 2.2% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2028, according to the new spring forecast by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) for 23 countries of the region, published on Wednesday.
Despite the energy price shock caused by the Iran war, growth in most of the economies of Central, East and Southeast Europe remains resilient, though it is slowing down, the report says.
According to the Institute, inflation in Bulgaria will reach 4.5% in 2026 before falling to 3.7% in 2027 and 3.0% in 2028. The country’s unemployment rate is forecast at 3.6% in 2026 and 3.7% in each of the two following years.
The analysts warn that, should the war in the Middle East drag on and lead to a severe energy crisis with persistently higher oil prices, Eastern Europe is also likely to suffer more severely. “For the time being, the impact of the Iran war on EU member states in Eastern Europe remains manageable. However, rising inflation, lower export demand, disrupted supply chains and a further decline in direct investment could have a severe impact,” says Richard Grieveson, Deputy Director of the Institute and lead author of the spring forecast.
The report also warns of a massive loss of industrial competitiveness in recent years, caused by a sharp rise in labour costs without a corresponding increase in productivity, growing competition from China and a decline in foreign direct investment. “The model that has hitherto been the hallmark of Central Eastern Europe’s success – acting as an extended production line for foreign industrial companies, which manufacture there cheaply on the basis of substantial investments in production facilities – is clearly under threat,” continues Grieveson.
For the EU member states of the region, the Vienna Institute forecasts average growth of 2.3% in 2026, a downward revision of 0.3 percentage points compared to the winter forecast. Growth in 2027 is again expected to be 2.3% – down 0.4 percentage points on the winter forecast. This means that, despite the current difficulties, these countries are likely to grow at more than twice the rate of the euro area both this year and next (2026: 0.9%; 2027: 1.1%).
“In the worst-case scenario of a protracted war in the Middle East, however, growth in some countries of the region could be around 1 to 1.5 percentage points lower,” warns Grieveson.
Poland is once again the growth leader among the Eastern EU member states in 2026, with 3.6%, while Hungary is expected to grow by 1.6%. The growth forecast for the Western Balkan countries is 2.5% in 2026, and for Turkiye 3.7%.
The outlook for Ukraine remains unstable, with growth in 2026 probably standing at around 1%, which depends heavily on the external environment.
Russia will stay close to stagnation, growing by 0.9% in 2026 despite higher energy revenues. According to the experts, high energy prices could stabilize Russia’s public finances, but the effect on economic growth will remain limited due to weak investment and a labour shortage. Vienna Institute Forecasts 2% Economic Growth in Bulgaria in 2026 and 2.4% by 2028 2026 THE NEWS FROM BULGARIA – NEWS AGENCY 2009-2025 2026-04-29 15:51:27 Latest news World news Country news Most important news latest news most important latest of the day Justice Petar Nizamov Feathers Petar Nizamov- Feathers Justice bg iustitia.bg iustitia iusticia usticia investigation Burgas Bulgaria news news of the last hour news of the day news of today Bulgaria news The news from Bulgaria blitz news top news most important most commented latest news Boyko Borisov news weather coronavirus news news weather facebook youtube facebook instagram news today news of the last minutes news today today news news bg news leading news hot news bg news site for news all news news bg news of the last hour latest latest news bg news of today news today news today news of the last hour latest news today news bg news news 24 hours news vesti bg novini news world bird bg bivol bg bivol trud bg novini latest news today novinite bg news hello bulgaria political party coat of arms delyan peevski scandalous Bulgarian National Television Free Europe Television scandal exclusive live tv live right now tv tv online tv program bg live now tv news online tv online live court Burgas court Burgas district court Burgas court Burgas district court Burgas district court Burgas appellate court Burgas prosecutor Burgas prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Prosecutor General Ivan Geshev Prosecutor Geshev Tsatsarov Ministry of Internal Affairs Burgas ODMR Burgas ODPR Burgas police Burgas district police Burgas prosecutor Tsatsarov SGS cases Varna court chairman of the SGS court decisions on civil cases decisions on cases Plovdiv court decision of the court decisions cases Varna court criminal cases district district court decisions work in the court SGS chairman of the SGS judges Sofia court post judges Plovdiv court Plovdiv judges Plovdiv Supreme Court Inspectorate Supreme Court Supreme Judicial Council lawyer lawyer criminal cases lawyer civil cases lawyer marriage cases lawyer administrative criminal law criminal process civil law civil process administrative law constitutional law