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(AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Fox Business host Larry Kudlow, whether he meant to or not, raised the curtain on what’s driving the geopolitical whiplash from President Donald Trump this week in his pronouncements about the suddenly fast-tracked, chaotic negotiations with Iran to end the war.
Kudlow joined Fox News anchor Sandra Smith on Thursday evening to discuss Trump’s surprise announcement that a “great settlement” had been reached with Iran, just hours after threatening to bomb the country harder than ever and raising the prospect of invading Kharg Island. Kudlow made clear in his analysis that Trump, more than anything else, is working to reassure oil and gas executives that enough oil is going to be flowing soon to avert the full-blown crisis they are warning is imminent.
Trump is currently caught in a squeeze between using more military force to push the Iranians to negotiate in good faith and ending hostilities quickly in order to soften the surging inflation caused by the conflict. The Iranians clearly know the calculus and, for their part, are doing everything to prolong negotiations to put further economic pressure on Trump.
Kudlow, who was once a member of Trump’s inner circle and is clearly familiar with his thinking, appeared to give the game away in the five-minute Fox News hit, which ended with Kudlow warning the president not to hit the panic button and simply buy off the Iranians to end the conflict.
Kudlow began with a lengthy, praise-filled take on Trump’s “secret stash of oil,” a kind of third way out for Trump to keep the pressure on Iran militarily, but also blunt the surging inflation. Kudlow’s take summed up the exact reassurance Trump was trying to give to the oil and gas industry executives who control prices with long-term forecasting.
The “secret stash,” as Kudlow dubbed it, referred to Trump’s dramatic yet dubious announcement earlier in the week that the U.S. military had engaged in a “secret mission” to get oil out of the Strait of Hormuz and on to the open market by sneaking boats out in the dark of night with transponders off, and under heavy military escort.
By his math, Kudlow claimed that the “secret” oil could “be cutting the shortage by almost half” – referring to the global oil market shortage caused by Iran scuttling traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. “It’s nine million barrels a day, right? That’s 20 million is what we’ve lost. So that means prices can ease down. This is the missing link. The secret stash, as I call it,” Kudlow explained.
Smith then added the key component to why all of this is happening now. “Which gives you the opportunity to respond to these oil executives that, according to The Washington Post, say they are warning the White House that gas prices will get worse. Apparently, they are making very grim predictions that are going to add to the problems they’re already facing in this sharp rise in inflation,” she said, referring to an early morning report in the Post.
Kudlow began by chastising the oil and gas leaders, saying, “They should know better.” But, eventually, he made clear that their “public argument” is indeed true. “All production inventories are low. Gas refining inventories are low. That is true, okay. But what I’m suggesting is, in the dead of night, the secret ship passage — the secret stash — the shortfall is getting smaller and smaller, okay?” he insisted.
The Post report Smith mentioned also noted that executives are publicly warning “prices are about to soar” domestically as “some inventories could be wiped out within weeks… coinciding with the peak summer travel season.”
One issue with Kudlow’s “secret stash” of Trump oil is that it was not so secret. As The New York Times reported after Trump announced the “secret mission,” the fact that the U.S. had helped get out dozens of commercial oil vessels was “widely disclosed.” “U.S. Central Command has guided around 70 commercial ships through the strait, traveling into and out of the Persian Gulf, in the last three weeks,” the Times reported last month – meaning that Trump and Kudlow’s “secret stash” is not news to oil executives warning of a looming price spike.
And, of course, that oil is being processed through privately owned and operated refineries, meaning industry leaders are well aware of it hitting the global market.
Kudlow ended his analysis with a key and apparently prescient warning to Trump, which also made clear that while he may genuinely be optimistic that the “secret” oil may help ease price spikes, he knows it may not be enough, and that Trump is getting desperate to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – where a fifth of the world’s oil transits to the global market.
“And my great hope — I’ll just say this — whatever deal we’re making, okay, I trust the president and so forth, but no money. Don’t give them any money,” Kudlow argued, concluding:
But keep the blockade going until it’s clear — clear for months — that the behavior of the Islamic Republic is changing, that the behavior’s changed. You give them money and they’re going to use it for evil, nefarious reasons, right? That’s the whole history of this thing. So we’re winning the oil battle step by step, inch by inch, but it’s important that we win the Iranian battle.
On Friday morning, Iran’s state media claimed that the current deal would give the country $300 billion for reconstruction, amid other major concessions. Trump blasted the leaked details as “Fake News” and wrote on Truth Social, “What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith. AMAZING! Also, their totally rebuffed Drone attack last night against Indian Ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE. They better get their act together, and FAST!”
Iran’s foreign minister soon after said that a deal is “closer than ever” and tried to tamp down any further escalation. However, what’s exactly in the deal, and whether the Iranian foreign minister, the Revolutionary Guard, and the Supreme Leader are all on the same page in trying to end the war, remains as big an unknown as ever. The one certitude we can take away from this week’s events, in part thanks to Kudlow’s analysis, is that Trump is working overtime to reassure the energy sector that he’s fully aware he must get more oil out of the Strait of Hormuz as quickly as possible or face a crippling domestic energy shortage.
The post In 5 Minutes on Fox News, Larry Kudlow Exposes What’s Behind Trump’s Farcical Iran Deal first appeared on Mediaite.
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