Balgarianovinite.com Bulgaria will record average annual inflation of 5.1% in 2026, compared with the 4.9% previously forecast in July, Dutch bank ING says in its September economic analysis published on Friday. The bank has kept its forecast for growth in the Bulgarian economy this year unchanged at 2.6%, but has lowered its 2027 growth forecast from 2.5% to 2.3%.
The forecast for the average annual increase in consumer prices in 2027 has been raised from 2.9% to 3.3%.
The September report also includes forecasts for Bulgaria for 2028, which were absent from the July edition. They envisage growth of 2% and average annual inflation of 3.2%.
The upward revision to Bulgaria’s inflation forecast mainly affects the second half of this year and the first half of next year. ING now expects average annual inflation of 5% in the third quarter of 2026, up from the July forecast of 4.6%, and 5.4% in the fourth quarter, up from 4.8%.
For the first quarter of 2027, the annual inflation forecast has been raised from 4.5% to 5%, while for the second quarter it has been increased from 2.1% to 2.6%. The bank therefore continues to expect inflation to ease significantly next year, but compared with its July analysis, the decline is now expected to be more limited.
At the same time, forecasts for annual growth in Bulgarian GDP in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 remain unchanged at 2.6% and 2.3%, respectively. The downward revision to the 2027 forecast is concentrated in the second, third and fourth quarters.
Bulgaria maintains growth lead over eurozone
Despite the downgrade for next year, forecast growth in Bulgaria remains above that of the eurozone. For the currency bloc, ING has raised its growth forecast for 2026 from 0.5% to 0.8% and kept its 2027 forecast unchanged at 1.3%.
Bulgaria, however, also continues to have higher expected inflation. For the eurozone, the bank forecasts an average annual increase in prices of 3% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, compared with 2.7% and 2.2%, respectively, in its July analysis.
Regional comparison
The regional picture is mixed. ING has kept its 2026 growth forecast for Poland at 3.4%, while raising its projection for Hungary from 1.5% to 1.7% and lowering that for Czechia from 2% to 1.9%. For Romania, the September report forecasts an economic contraction of 0.5% and average annual inflation of 8.5%.
The main change in ING’s broader international outlook between July and September is a reduced expectation that energy price pressures will ease quickly. While in July the bank assumed a faster recovery in oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, its September analysis factors in more prolonged uncertainty surrounding the conflict between the United States and Iran and raises its oil and natural gas price forecasts.
ING has raised its forecast for the average price of Brent crude in the fourth quarter of 2026 from USD 74 to USD 80 per barrel. Its forecast for European natural gas prices on the Dutch TTF benchmark over the same period has been increased from EUR 48 to EUR 65 per megawatt-hour. For the first quarter of 2027, the gas price forecast has been raised from EUR 40 to EUR 65 per megawatt-hour.
The bank also expects eurozone interest rates to remain higher for longer. While its July forecast envisaged the European Central Bank’s deposit rate falling to 2.25% in the second quarter of 2027, the September analysis projects it remaining at 2.5% throughout next year.
Dutch Bank ING Raises Bulgaria’s 2026 Inflation Forecast to 5.1%, Cuts 2027 Growth Forecast 2026 THE NEWS FROM BULGARIA – NEWS AGENCY 2009-2025 2026-09-04 12:11:00
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