Bulgaria’s economy is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2026, before slowing to 2.5% in 2027, according to the report Regional Economic Prospects: September 2026 released by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) on Thursday and published on the institution’s website.
Compared with the EBRD’s June forecast, the outlook for Bulgaria’s economic growth remains unchanged for both 2026 and 2027.
After Bulgaria’s gross domestic product grew by 3.4% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025, growth slowed to 2.8% in the first half of 2026, although domestic consumption and investment demand remained resilient, the EBRD said.
Industrial production in Bulgaria returned to growth following a significant decline in 2025, while the services and construction sectors continued to expand at a solid pace.
Exports fell significantly in the first quarter of the year but partially recovered by mid-year, the EBRD noted.
Inflation in Bulgaria, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), reached 6.3% in May 2026, mainly due to higher energy prices. Food price inflation, however, began to slow in July.
Bulgaria’s fiscal position has deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, with the 2026 budget targeting a consolidated fiscal programme deficit, measured under the general government methodology, of 5.7% of GDP, the EBRD said.
Since July 2026, Bulgaria has been subject to the European Union’s excessive deficit procedure, meaning that fiscal consolidation is expected to be among the key priorities of economic policy in the medium term.
According to the EBRD, a key risk to Bulgaria’s economic growth is the impact that the necessary reduction of the budget deficit could have on consumer and business confidence.
Following previous delays, the absorption of funds under the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) is once again among the priorities, the EBRD said. According to its experts, Bulgaria should be able to absorb a significant share of the funds allocated to it by the end of the year.
The report also notes that investment demand in Bulgaria remains resilient, while the recovery in industrial production, together with continued growth in services and construction, is supporting economic activity.
The EBRD expects the economies of South-Eastern European countries to grow by a combined 0.5% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. The forecasts for the region are unchanged from the June assessment.
EBRD Leaves Bulgaria’s Growth Forecasts Unchanged at 2.7% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027 THE NEWS FROM BULGARIA – NEWS AGENCY 2009-2025 2026-09-24 08:16:49
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BULGARIA NEWS – NEWS AGENCY 2009–2026 2026-09-24 08:16:49