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Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election forecasting group at the University of Virginia, shifted four races on Tuesday – including two key U.S. Senate races that could determine the majority come November.
The Crystal Ball rankings moved Alaska’s competitive Senate race from “Toss Up” to “Lean D,” which would be a pickup for the Democrats. South Carolina’s Senate race moved from “Safe R’” to “Likely R,” while the governor’s races in Oregon and Alaska also moved towards Democrats. Oregon went from “Likely D” to “Leans D” while Alaska’s gubernatorial contest moved from “Toss Up” to “Lean D.”
The Crystal Ball write up on the changes noted that the Alaska U.S. Senate race began at “Safe R.”
“Our thinking at the time was that former Rep. Mary Peltola (D, AK)—who we would have hardly blamed for running in what would have been an easier race for governor—was the only Democrat who could give Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) a real race. Peltola formally entered the race in January, and the race has seemed to steadily move in her direction,” explained the Crystal Ball analysis, adding:
Some of the strongest evidence for Peltola comes from two polling groups with strong reputations. A recent New York Times/Siena University survey conducted among likely voters has Peltola leading Sen. Dan Sullivan 50%-43%, while a September AARP poll from the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) had her ahead 46%-41% on the initial ballot and 53%-47% after accounting for ranked-choice-voting.
The analysis added that while Petola had initially hit the 50% threshold in the primary during her 2024 reelection bid, but still lost the general election by two points to her Republican challenger, a repeat of that seemed unlikely in a non-presidential year.
“But our general sense for months has been that Alaska, a small, quirky state with a unique election system, was perhaps the most promising red state Senate target for Democrats. We’re formalizing that today by moving it from Toss-up to Leans Democratic,” concluded the Crystal Ball.
In South Carolina, appointed and Trump-backed Sen. Darline Graham (R) is “only nominally ahead” of physician Annie Andrews (D), noted the Crystal Ball analysis, which predicted Graham still pulls it out. “Graham should be fine in the end, but her position is a Republican equivalent to Minnesota’s open-seat race, where Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) has only held a modest lead over former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya (R) in a race we call Likely Democratic,” added the write-up, calling both Graham and Flanagan “flawed candidates facing credible challengers, but both ultimately should be helped by the baseline partisanship of their respective states.”
The post Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves Two Key Senate Races Toward Democrats, Including a GOP Flip first appeared on Mediaite.
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