Bulgaria News
CNN senior military analyst James Stavridis predicted a “better than even chance” that President Donald Trump reaches a deal with Iran once the midterm elections are out of the way, arguing mounting pressure on Tehran could help bring both sides back to the negotiating table.
Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, made the assessment Tuesday during an appearance on Michael Smerconish’s SiriusXM show.
He suggested the conflict is effectively in a holding pattern until November’s election, with the Trump administration likely to remain focused on the domestic political fallout from the elections before turning its attention back toward negotiations with Iran.
“Everything… kind of stopped until we get through the midterms and process the economic outcomes here in the United States,” Stavridis said.
He argued that time may increasingly be working against Tehran, pointing to what he described as competing blockades. Iran’s efforts to restrict shipping are becoming less effective, Stavridis said, while a U.S. blockade of the Iranian coastline appears to be applying greater economic pressure on the regime.
“Both of those clocks are ticking. I would argue the Iranian clock is now ticking faster,” he said. That, Stavridis argued, could leave Trump with an opening once the election is over.
“Once the midterms are done, I think we’ve got the prospect of getting back to the table and getting a deal, Michael. Call that 60% chance of getting a deal, 40% we could be back shooting,” the analyst said. “Let’s hope not. Let’s hope our better angels prevail.”
Stavridis later reiterated that assessment, saying: “Can we get to a deal in the straight after the midterms? Yeah, I think we can and I think [there’s a] better than even chance we will.”
He also outlined the “next big muscle movement” that could come next if diplomacy fails, suggesting the United States could undertake a much longer-term effort alongside Israel and Arab allies “to build a real resistance movement inside Iran, like we did with the French resistance in the Second World War.”
“Communications, weapons, trained leaders, a real message, find the right people and bring them together. Complex work,” he said. “It’s a two- to three-year project.”
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