Around 60% of jobs in advanced economies and 23% in low-income countries will be affected by artificial intelligence over time, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. Globally, around 40% of jobs are expected to be augmented by the technology, downgraded or eliminated.
The discussion, Small AI: More and Better Jobs, took place in Bangkok as part of the 2026 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund. Organized by the World Bank, the session opened a week of meetings and discussions. Participants included Georgieva, World Bank Group President Ajay Banga and Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam. The event was held at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in the Thai capital, which also hosted the Annual Meetings.
This is a slow-moving tsunami, but it is still a tsunami, Georgieva said during a discussion on AI’s potential to create jobs and boost productivity. She stressed that some of the effects were already becoming visible. The lower share of jobs expected to be affected in low-income countries does not mean they are better positioned, but rather that AI has yet to become as widespread in those economies.
IMF research on the US labour market shows that 10% of jobs already require higher levels of AI-related skills. These positions command higher wages. At the same time, routine and repetitive jobs are declining, while lower-paid positions are increasing in construction, data centres and services.
The net effect across the segment of the US labour market examined is positive, but this is no reason for complacency, Georgieva said, as the gains are concentrated in lower-paid jobs. She highlighted the particular importance of the issue for young people entering the workforce. They typically begin their careers by performing routine and repetitive tasks before gradually progressing up the career ladder. A decline in these entry-level roles could make that path more difficult.
Georgieva identified three key tasks for governments. They must closely monitor changes in the labour market, rethink education and promote lifelong learning. The third task is to assess the implications for public finances. Governments traditionally derive a significant share of their revenue from taxing labour. If AI reshapes the labour market, resulting in less labour and more capital, countries will need to consider how to secure the revenue required to fund public services.
She warned that it is impossible to predict precisely what the world of work will look like in five years. This makes it essential to monitor and analyze developments and translate the findings into concrete action.
Economic impact and growth opportunities
In the opening part of the discussion, Georgieva examined AI’s economic impact. The first wave of effects is being driven by rising demand and investment, including the construction of data centres and investment in AI models. This process is supporting growth in a relatively small number of economies.
Georgieva noted that the global economy continues to grow at around 3% despite the adverse impact of the energy supply shock. The United States, China and India are among the leading AI producers, while a number of Asian economies are participating in the technology’s supply chains through the development of supporting infrastructure.
The next wave will come from the wider adoption of AI. According to Georgieva’s estimates, this could boost growth in advanced Asian economies by between 0.5 and 1 percentage point, and in developing Asian economies by between 0.2 and 0.8 percentage points. An additional 1 percentage point of growth in advanced Asian economies would more than offset the drag from population ageing, she said.
To capitalize on these opportunities, developing economies need access to electricity and digital infrastructure, must prepare their populations to use the technology and must put safeguards in place to prevent abuse.
Creating jobs in developing economies
World Bank Group President Ajay Banga stressed the need to create employment opportunities for young people in developing countries. Over the next 15 years, 1.2 billion young people will reach working age, he said. The private sector generates between 75 and 85% of jobs in a country, while governments are responsible for creating the right conditions for investment.
Banga identified five areas with significant job-creation potential: infrastructure, smallholder agriculture, primary healthcare, tourism and higher-value-added manufacturing. He also highlighted the potential of small AI – affordable applications designed to address specific problems in developing economies.
As an example, Banga described a health centre in Indonesia where a nurse can photograph a skin rash with a mobile phone and send the image to a doctor. The doctor can assess the case or use a locally available AI tool to evaluate the condition and determine the appropriate next steps.
Another example is a platform developed with Google for Indian farmers. It connects farmers and cooperatives with better seeds and fertilisers, crop insurance, credit and market access. A farmer can point a phone at a leaf to identify a plant disease and order the appropriate insecticide through the cooperative.
According to Banga, such applications can boost productivity and create employment opportunities in lower- and middle-income countries. The goal, he stressed, is to build jobs that respond to local needs, rather than simply shifting employment from advanced to developing economies.
Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam warned that economic growth alone does not guarantee the creation of enough quality jobs. China, India and developing economies in Southeast Asia are recording relatively solid growth, he noted, but job creation remains weak. AI could widen this gap unless it is deliberately deployed to support employment.
Shanmugaratnam highlighted green energy as an opportunity to create additional jobs. For every USD 1 million invested, renewable energy generates three times as many jobs as fossil fuel-based energy, he said.
Healthcare also offers considerable potential. The number of nurses per capita in developing countries is between five and ten times lower than in advanced economies. Even partially closing this gap would require more doctors, nurses and community health workers, Shanmugaratnam said.
Rethinking education and the first job
In the subsequent discussion, Shanmugaratnam said AI-driven job displacement would occur gradually, task by task. This would give workers time to adapt, acquire new skills and build on their existing knowledge.
However, he warned that demand for entry-level positions for recent graduates is declining in advanced economies, with the trend particularly pronounced in the technology sector. In the US, demand for university graduates has fallen for the first time in a century, he said, while their wage premium has narrowed significantly.
Governments should work with the private sector to ensure that young people have opportunities to secure their first jobs, Shanmugaratnam argued. He also called for changes in higher education, including more practical classes, internships and workplace-based training, so that educational programmes better reflect the changing needs of the labour market.
In her closing remarks, Georgieva said she would like AI to take over the tasks people do not want to perform, allowing them to focus on what they enjoy. She linked this vision to higher productivity, higher living standards and the preservation of human dignity, ensuring that people can continue to participate fully in society.
AI to Affect 40% of Jobs Worldwide Over Time, Says IMF Chief 2026 THE NEWS FROM BULGARIA – NEWS AGENCY 2009-2025 2026-10-12 06:28:51
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