The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its forecast for Bulgaria’s economic growth in 2026 from 2.8% to 2.6% and revised its projection for the country’s average annual inflation upwards from 3.8% to 4.9%, compared with its spring estimates. This is according to the October edition of the World Economic Outlook, published on Monday.
For 2027, the IMF expects Bulgaria’s economic growth to edge up to 2.7%. The forecast has been raised from the 2.5% projected in April. Meanwhile, the estimate for average annual inflation in 2027 has been increased from 3.7% to 4.8%.
The forecast for the current account has deteriorated significantly. The IMF expects Bulgaria’s current account deficit to reach 8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, double the 4% forecast in April. For 2027, the deficit is projected at 6.6% of GDP, up from the previous estimate of 3.2%.
Labour market forecasts remain unchanged. Unemployment is expected to fall from 3.6% in 2025 to 3.4% this year and 3.3% next year.
Bulgaria’s economy is expected to grow considerably faster than the eurozone average, although inflation in the country will also remain significantly higher. For the eurozone, the IMF forecasts growth of 1.1% and inflation of 3.1% in 2026. For 2027, the respective projections are 1.2% growth and 2.8% inflation.
The IMF’s latest forecast for Bulgarian growth this year is more cautious than the estimate issued by the Ministry of Finance. In its autumn macroeconomic forecast, the ministry raised its growth projection for 2026 from 2.6% to 3%, citing stronger-than-expected economic data for the first half of the year.
For 2027, the Finance Ministry maintained its growth forecast of 2.5%. It expects average annual inflation, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), to reach 4.8% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.
The inflation figures published by the two institutions are not fully comparable. The Finance Ministry explicitly uses the HICP, whereas the IMF’s table for Bulgaria reports the average annual change in the consumer price index.
In September, international ratings agency Fitch Ratings said it expected the Bulgarian economy to grow by 2.8% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. At the same time, it raised its forecast for average annual inflation in 2026 from 3.8% to 4.9%, and for 2027 from 3.8% to 4%. Fitch’s inflation forecast for the current year therefore matches that of the IMF.
Earlier this month, the World Bank maintained its forecast for Bulgaria’s economic growth in 2026 at 2.6%, but cut its projection for 2027 from 2.9% to 2.6%. According to the World Bank, higher energy prices and slower growth among Bulgaria’s trading partners will constrain economic activity.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Bulgaria’s GDP to grow by 2.7% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
Bulgaria compared with its neighbours
The IMF’s October outlook points to diverging trends in three of Bulgaria’s neighbouring countries, ranging from higher inflation and weak growth in Romania to a more favourable economic growth outlook in Serbia.
For Greece, the growth forecast for 2026 has been maintained at 1.8%, while the projection for 2027 has been raised from 1.7% to 1.8%. The inflation forecast has been increased from 3.5% to 4.2% for this year and from 2.7% to 3.6% for next year.
The unemployment forecast has also been revised upwards, from 7.4% to 8% for 2026 and from 7.1% to 7.6% for 2027.
For Romania, the IMF now expects the economy to contract by 0.5% in 2026, compared with its April forecast of 0.7% growth. The growth projection for 2027 has been cut from 2.5% to 2.2%.
Inflation in Romania is expected to reach 8.2% in 2026, up from the previous forecast of 7.8%. The estimate for 2027 has been raised from 3.9% to 4.1%.
Unemployment is expected to rise from 6% to 6.5% in 2026, while the forecast for 2027 remains unchanged at 5.9%.
For Serbia, the IMF has revised its GDP growth forecasts upwards, from 2.8% to 3.3% for 2026 and from 3.5% to 4% for 2027.
Unlike in Bulgaria, Greece and Romania, the inflation forecast for Serbia has been lowered. The Fund expects average annual inflation to stand at 3.1% in 2026, down from the April estimate of 5.2%. For 2027, the forecast has been reduced from 4.9% to 4.2%.
IMF Cuts Bulgaria’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 2.6%, Raises Inflation Outlook to 4.9% THE NEWS FROM BULGARIA – NEWS AGENCY 2009-2025 2026-10-13 05:21:00
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