A prolonged war in the Middle East and new disruptions to energy production, shipping or critical infrastructure are the biggest risks to economies in the Middle East and Central Asia, said Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), at a press conference on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on Thursday.
He explained that the impact of the energy shock has so far been limited by pre-war surpluses, alternative supply routes, demand adjustment, and the use of inventories. However, these buffers are limited. Inventories have dwindled, spare production capacity is smaller, and new disruptions could lead to significantly greater price fluctuations.
Anzur also highlighted the importance of the Middle Corridor for the economic development of the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Investments in the transport route and diversification of trade ties can strengthen the integration of these economies into global markets. He also pointed to the opportunities for expanding trade with China, Europe and the Middle East.
The IMF forecast a contraction of the economy of the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan region by 1.3% in 2026 after growth of 3.3% in 2025. For 2027, the fund expects a strong but uneven recovery, with growth of 6.6%.
The forecast assumes that normal movement of goods and shipping will be restored in the first quarter of 2027, and exports will gradually normalize by mid-year. Petroleum prices are expected to remain higher. Petroleum-exporting countries directly affected by the war are expected to see a significant contraction in their economies in 2026, followed by a sharp recovery in 2027 as energy production normalizes. However, their production will remain below medium-term forecasts made before the conflict.
2026 THE NEWS FROM BULGARIA – NEWS AGENCY 2009-2025 2026-10-15 09:28:42
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