The presidential election ticket of incumbent head of state Iliana Yotova and vice-presidential candidate Kiril Vulchev has 47.3 per cent support among those who intend to vote, with former caretaker prime minister Andrei Gyurov and his running mate Georgi Kandev in second place with 30.6 per cent, according to the results of a Market Links poll, released on October 21.
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The previous poll by Market Links, the results of which were released on September 30, on voter intentions in Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential elections, showed that the Yotova – Vulchev ticket had 41.1 per cent and the Gyurov – Kandev ticket 21.9 per cent.
The new poll by the agency showed that in third place was the pro-Russian ticket of Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin, 10.3 per cent.
Voter turnout on October 25 is expected to be 39 per cent, which means a runoff is certain. For a candidate to win at the first round, the ticket must get at least 50 per cent of the vote, with voter turnout at least 50 per cent.
Market Links’s Dobromir Zhivkov told bTV on October 21: “We must say that there are specifics in the electorates of the first two pairs. Seventy-five per cent of Yotova-Vulchev voters are actually Progressive Bulgaria voters in April,” he said, referring to the party led by Roumen Radev, which won a decisive victory in this year’s early parliamentary elections.
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Zhivkov said that the remaining 25 per cent of those backing Yotova are diverse.
“There are quite a few of them who actually say they did not vote. That is, there are also newly attracted voters,” Zhivkov said.
“While with Gyurov and Kandev, things seem even more colourful, because with them there is participation of both GERB voters and MRF voters, as well as those who did not vote. But the core, we must say, of course, is We continue the change – Democratic Bulgaria,” he said.
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Kostadinov and Volgin are appealing to disappointed Russophiles who expected a different, more categorical position from Radev regarding Russia.
“If we now have an extraordinary parliamentary vote, Progressive Bulgaria continues to be in first place with a serious lead, but we must say that here they are still between two and three points down. That is, the result for another month since the beginning of this Cabinet’s rule has been going down and this is again visible in all the indicators that we measure,” Zhivkov said.
Were Bulgaria to hold parliamentary elections now, Progressive Bulgaria would get 32 per cent among those who would vote, We Continue the Change 10.2 per cent, GERB-UDF 9.6 per cent, Democratic Bulgaria 7.6 per cent, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms 5.6 per cent and Kostadinov’s Vuzrazhdane 4.4 per cent.
“There is also a shift – GERB is no longer the second political force, although here we must say that the result is practically the same and in the elections literally on Sunday it could be the other way around. But we must say that We Continue the Change, like Kostadinov and Volgin and Vuzrazhdane, is gradually starting to attract dropouts from Progressive Bulgaria and this is very clearly expressed in this result and this, at least symbolically, second place for now,” Zhivkov said.
“There is a very serious anxiety in society regarding national security. Sixty-eight believe that these are indeed significant, serious threats, while only 15 per cent tend to downplay them, and 17 per cent are neutral.”
“Sixty-eight say that the attacks (on vessels in the Black Sea) are a threat to national security, and according to 15 per cent, the attacks are not a threat and are actually being overexposed,” he said.
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“The public has a relatively clear position on who is behind these attacks. Forty-three per cent believe that this is the work of Russia, 28 per cent believe that these are attacks initiated by Ukraine itself, and 29 per cent cannot determine,” Zhivkov said.
“Bulgaria is the last to give a clear answer. We see that the European institutions have already given it clearly enough. The intelligence services of our partners have also given it,”he said.
“Trust in the government is also on a downward trend. It seems that this trend is already starting to reach a plateau.”
“Because we see, although there is a decrease in trust and a very small increase in distrust, we still have to say that the Cabinet is now more distrusted than trusted. Forty-one per cent state distrust against 36 per cent trust now in October, with the difference in the net rating already about four percentage points down compared to the previous month,” he said.
“The picture is repeated in the ratings of political leaders. Roumen Radev now has practically equal trust and distrust.”
The poll found that Radev’s approval rating was 41 per cent and disapproval rating 40 per cent.
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“Distrust is growing. The general picture so far: 18 per cent of society retains trust, declares trust in Parliament. But from 58 per cent in September, we now have 64 per cent distrust. That is, again a devaluation of trust in basic institutions,” Zhivkov said.
“We see both the Cabinet and Parliament, in which Progressive Bulgaria has a majority. In fact, they show a common assessment. And let’s say in conclusion that it is largely due to the economic results that are currently visible, and prices,” he said
“Prices worry people. The reasons are largely economic. This is the main thing, but the threats are starting to become a very constant background of tension in society, which is also, of course, starting to shape attitudes.”
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“And it will determine to a large extent, in my opinion, the direction of the vote, because the geopolitical division is starting to have its say in this campaign,” Zhivkov said.
The national survey, jointly funded and implemented by BTV and Market Link, was conducted among 1006 individuals over 18 years of age in Bulgaria between October 13 and 19 2026, using the methods of direct personal interview and online survey.
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