CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten declared that Democrats are in “blowout territory” when it comes to the midterm elections and the hard-fought effort to take back Congress.
“The midterms are just days away and I’m pouring over hundreds, no thousands of polls and data points,” Enten said on Sunday. “And you know what the numbers are telling me? They are telling me that we are heading towards blowout territory! My goodness gracious! And of course, don’t be angry with me because the numbers do the talking and I just listen.”
“And what are we talking about when we’re talking about a midterm blowout forecast? Well, we’re going to start off with the House of Representatives,” Enten said, continuing:
The chance of a House blowout is 71%, 71%. Now, there’s a 29% chance that it doesn’t happen, right? But 71%
things happen more often than 29% things! I know enough of math to know that. So, what does this actually mean in terms of the parties? Well, the chance that the party gets to at least 230 House seats — look, Republicans, the chance that they blow out the Democrats, really, it’s 2%.We haven’t seen the type of error necessary for Republicans to actually blow out the Democrats…What we’re talking about here is that Democrats are really the ones who have the real chance of blowing out the Republicans. A very, very nice 69% chance.
Enten then asked, “But what are we actually talking about in terms of what I think a lot of folks are really interested in, and that is the United States Senate,” before running through a litany of statistics and possibilities.
“You put it all together. What’s the chance that Democrats win at least 52 seats, 52 Senate seats?” Enten asked, continuing:
It’s 57% chance that Democrats win. Not just a majority in the United States Senate, but a majority with room to spare in the United States Senate. And remember, we’re not just talking about the chance that Democrats have of blowing out the Republicans. Remember, the Republicans also have a chance. Remember this? A 24% chance that Republicans win at least 51 seats.
So you put it all together, you put in this 24%, you put in the 57% chance that Democrats have…And so, the chance of a Senate blowout is 81% chance that one of the two parties wins with room to spare. So yeah, look, there’s a 19% chance right? On the other side of this coin that we’re really down to the wire, when we’re really counting the ballots and one state is ultimately going to decide things on election night — It’s possible, but it’s only about a one in five chance. Chances are, one of the parties is going to win with at least one one seat to spare.
His segment came as President Donald Trump stopped in Michigan on Sunday, as he attempts to rally GOP support heading into the midterms.
Watch the report above via CNN on YouTube.
The post ‘Blowout Territory!’ CNN’s Enten Declares Democrats Are Poised To Retake The House first appeared on Mediaite.
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