Fox News Power Ranking Calls NC Senate Lost Cause for GOP, Shifts 3 Other Races Toward Democrats 2026

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The battle for North Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat is pretty much over, according to the latest update to the Fox News Power Rankings — along with several other races that moved in the Democrats’ favor.

The race pits former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) against GOP nominee Michael Whatley. Whatley is the former chair of the Republican National Committee and the North Carolina Republican Party, and Cooper is an attorney with a long résumé in Tar Heel State politics, serving for years in the North Carolina legislature, as the state’s Attorney General, and then governor until 2025.

Cooper has maintained a solid lead over Whatley in polls for months and election prognosticators have given the Democrat improving odds to win in November, including Fox.

Tuesday’s analysis by Fox News lead political affairs specialist Rémy Numa commented that North Carolina had become “less competitive than it was two weeks ago” and they were shifting the race from Lean D to Likely D.

Whatley “is running as strong a race as he can,” wrote Numa, predicting that the margin on Election Day “will probably be tighter than polls currently have it,” but Cooper “is also a strong candidate, and he has had double-digit leads in multiple surveys.”

Republicans are revealing their cards, Numa noted, and no longer see the Tar Heel State’s Senate race as a good investment. The Senate Leadership Fund has been withdrawing resources from North Carolina and cancelling plans for ad buys. Late last month, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) released his list of top target states, and North Carolina was not included. Neither was Georgia, where incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (R-GA) is on a glide path to re-election.

South Carolina ” is getting more competitive,” wrote Numa, with incumbent Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC), who was appointed to the seat after her brother Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) died.

Darline Graham has President Donald Trump’s endorsement, which unquestionably helped her win a contested special primary election, but she remains a political neophyte and “[t]here are lingering questions about Graham’s ability to turn out a broad spectrum of Republican voters,” wrote Numa, with Democrat Annie Andrews heavily pushing a campaign message of affordability.

Fox News moved the race from Solid R to Likely R, mirroring another rating update that was also released Tuesday from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, shifting South Carolina from Safe R (their term meaning the same as Solid R) to Likely R.

There was a bit of good news for Republicans in Oregon, with incumbent Gov. Tina Kotek (D) getting dragged down by a first term that “hasn’t gone smoothly,” wrote Numa, including “a housing crisis, poor education outcomes, higher city crime rates than in neighboring states, and like other incumbents, she flip-flopped on data centers.”

Add in a “lethargic debate performance” and it’s cracked open the door a bit for Republican nominee, Oregon State Sen. Christine Drazen (R). Still, wrote Numa, “Democrats have every reason to hold on to this state in November, but it’s going to be tougher than the party wants,” and Fox News moved the gubernatorial race from Likely D to Lean D.

Fox News also shifted two governors’ races left, with both Florida and Vermont moving from Solid R to Likely R. Wrote Numa:

The Sunshine State is the home of the “MAGA” movement, and Rep. Byron Donalds easily locked up the Republican nomination in August. But he has stumbled, at times, on the campaign trail, and Hispanic voters continue to express frustration with this economy. Florida moves from Solid R to Likely R.

And in Vermont, longtime incumbent Republican Phil Scott might have raised an eyebrow at a new poll from the University of New Hampshire showing his Democratic opponent, Amanda Janoo, up six points against Scott, 49% to 43%.

Scott keeps winning elections comfortably in Vermont, but the party label could be a bigger problem this cycle. The Green Mountain State also moves from Solid R to Likely R.

As we’re now a few days into October, it’s time for any potential October Surprises to emerge, Numa noted, but those tend to have less impact in non-presidential years and are more likely to affect an individual race rather than the fortunes of an entire political party.

The post Fox News Power Ranking Calls NC Senate Lost Cause for GOP, Shifts 3 Other Races Toward Democrats first appeared on Mediaite.

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