A significantly lower level of interest in the October 25 presidential election than in the April 19 parliamentary election and a likely runoff are the main trends identified by an Alpha Research survey published on the agency’s website.
The survey was conducted between September 24 and October 1, using Alpha Research’s own funds, among 1,000 adults nationwide. It used a two-stage sample with quotas based on key sociodemographic characteristics. Data were collected through face-to-face standardized interviews using tablets at respondents’ homes. Alpha Research said it was responsible for the data and interpretation published on its website, but not for their selective or manipulative use.
Alpha Research identified three clear trends and two possible surprises.
The first trend is significantly lower interest in the presidential election compared with the April 19 parliamentary election. As of the end of September, around 2.4 million to 2.6 million voters said they intended to vote. Based on the Central Election Commission’s electoral rolls, which contain more than 6.6 million voters, this would correspond to turnout of around 37%, the analysts said.
The second trend is a likely runoff. The agency said there was a very high probability that neither of the two conditions required for a first-round presidential victory would be met: turnout of more than 50% and support from more than 50% of those who voted.
The third trend is a lead for the Iliana Iotova-Kiril Valchev ticket with 44.5%, followed by Andrey Gurov-Georgi Kandev with 26.1%. Vazrazhdane candidates Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin are third with 10.5%.
Support for the remaining 24 presidential tickets stands at around or below 3% among voters who have firmly decided to vote, Alpha Research said.
One possible surprise, according to the analysts, could be a sharp further decline in turnout due to growing economic concerns among Bulgarians, negative campaigning, including black PR, or unexpected events. Amid social insecurity, such developments could discourage a majority of Bulgarians who do not identify with a particular political force from voting. A drop in turnout below 2 million voters would significantly alter the electoral and political balance by increasing the role of core electorates and mobilization through social media, the analysts said.
According to Alpha Research, another possible surprise could be more coordinated voting behaviour among GERB-UDF and Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) supporters. At present, supporters of both parties show mixed preferences, with around half saying they do not intend to vote. Among those who do, just under 30% of GERB-UDF voters support Gurov, half as many support Iotova, and around 5% support Kostadinov. Among MRF voters, the ratio is 1.5:1 in favour of Iotova.
If the parties officially or unofficially call on their supporters to back particular candidates, there could be further surprises, particularly if turnout is low, the analysts said.
Alpha Research Survey Points to Runoff, Lower Turnout in Presidential Election than April Parliamentary Vote 2026 THE NEWS FROM BULGARIA – NEWS AGENCY 2009-2025 2026-10-05 10:05:52
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BULGARIA NEWS – NEWS AGENCY 2009–2026 2026-10-05 10:05:52
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