CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten had a grim prediction for President Donald Trump ahead of Tuesday’s elections: not only forecasting several key Democratic wins but saying the elections were likely a bellwether of doom for Republicans in next year’s midterms.
Enten was on CNN News Central Monday to preview the New York City mayor’s race and gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey.
Anchor Sara Sidner noted that these three races had a broad range of ideologies among the Democratic candidates, from self-proclaimed Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani running in NYC to former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), a moderate, and asked Enten how they could “both be seen as bellwethers?”
“The common denominator here is Donald Trump,” said Enten, “and Democrats are on the precipice of delivering a huge blow to Donald Trump.”
Democrats were leading “all the key races,” said Enten, with New Jersey governor “really the only close one,” with Democrat Mikie Sherrill up six points. In Virginia, Spanberger was up ten, and Mamdani was up 16 points in New York.
There might be “ideological differences between the Democrats,” Enten continued, but the “key common component” to all their campaigns is “they are all going after Donald Trump,” and they’re all leading.
Sidner asked for more information about how Trump was affecting these races.
“Look, Donald Trump is a yuge, yuge drag in all these races,” replied Enten, borrowing Trump’s common pronunciation of “huge,” and pointing out the president’s underwater popularity in these state polls.
That meant, Enten continued, that “these races, in my mind, could be yuge bellwethers going into next year, to understanding how Donald Trump is impacting these races.”
“He is a huge, huge drag in — across the board — New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City,” he added.
Sidner asked Enten if these races “tell us anything” about the midterm elections.
Trump was at his second term lows, replied Enten, in multiple polls. And looking back through history, “look at what has happened when Democrats sweep New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia governor — they won the U.S. House the next year, five out of five times in the last 90 years…all the way back to the FDR administration.”
“So the bottom line is this,” said Enten, “when Democrats do well in these off-year elections, when they sweep new Jersey, Virginia, and New York City, historically speaking, that means they go on to win the U.S. House of Representatives the next time around. And when we’re in this national polarized environment and Donald Trump is as unpopular as he is, I think that history is likely to hold, if, in fact, Democrats do sweep tomorrow, which at this point looks more likely than not.”
Watch the clip above via CNN.
The post CNN Data Guru Calls Trump ‘A Huge, Huge Drag’ on GOP Candidates, Predicts Democratic Sweep first appeared on Mediaite.
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