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CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, marveled on air Monday at Vice President JD Vance’s lead in the New Hampshire GOP presidential primary for 2028, saying he couldn’t find any poll showing a similar lead in the past.
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Enten began by telling anchor Sara Sidner, “I will just note it is never, never too early to talk about this because these guys are running already, even if they haven’t formally declared.”
“They’re already running, and JD Vance is running well ahead of the field. I mean, take a look here. Top chances to be the 2028 GOP press nominee, the prediction market odds. Look at this: JD Vance, 48% chance. Nobody else is even close. Marco Rubio is way back at 12%, and no one else is even above a 5% chance of being the 2028 GOP nominee. JD Vance is like Mario Andretti, and Marco Rubio and the rest of the field, they’re like going around in go-karts at this point. I mean, that’s really what we’re looking at. JD Vance is the clear, heavy favorite at this time,” Enten added.
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Sidner followed up, “And over time, depending on what happens, depending on how big this is, it could mean that some people don’t actually go for it. There you go. That’s one of the keys here. Is there any other polling that would back this up, this prediction market from Kalshi saying, ‘Hey, look at this number?’”
Enten replied, “Yeah, this number is not coming out of nowhere. And I will note, of course, you know, he’s not at 50% plus yet, but when nobody else is even close, that makes you a clear heavy favorite.”
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“And there’s a reason why. Just take a look at New Hampshire, right? The first-in-the-nation primary. I mean, take a look here. JD Vance at 51%. The next closest is Nikki Haley, who’s at 9%. I mean, what is that? That’s 42 points ahead of the pack. Tulsi Gabbard is at 8%, and in the first-in-the-nation primary, JD Vance, you know, is running 42 points ahead. There’s a reason why he’s such a heavy favorite in the prediction market so far, because if you win the GOP primary in New Hampshire, chances are you’re going to be the Republican nominee for president,” Enten explained.
Sidner pressed, “Like, how rare is this, or how often do you see someone so far ahead in this primary in New Hampshire?”
“Yeah, okay, so I saw this 51%, and all of a sudden, there was a buzz going around in my head. I said, “Boy, this seems really weird. I can’t recall anyone being this far ahead at this early stage in New Hampshire.” I looked back—hitting 50% plus in the early New Hampshire polls for a non-sitting president—JD Vance is the only one, the only one ever,” Enten replied, adding:
You can go all the way back in the polling archives, all the way back to 1980, which is the earliest I could look at. JD Vance is the only one ever to get a majority of the New Hampshire vote, according to the early primary polls. At this point, JD Vance is pulling off something historic at this time, and that is the key reason why, at this point, he is the far and away favorite for the Republican nomination. He’s just way out ahead of the pack.
Sidner asked, “What does history say—and I think most of us can guess this—but what does history say about vice presidents running for the presidency?”
Enten replied, “Yeah, I mean, just take a look. You just take a look at the last five sitting VPs who ran for the presidency. All were their party’s nominees: Kamala Harris, Al Gore, George H.W. Bush, Hubert Horatio Humphrey—therefore HHH—and Richard Nixon back in 1960. So, yeah, you put it all together: JD Vance, a heavy favorite. He’s had a very good 2025. We’ll see if he has a very good 2026.”
“This is the least surprising thing, but the big numbers that you’re seeing are surprising compared to what’s happened in the past,” Sidner concluded.
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Watch the clip above via CNN.
The post CNN Data Guru Marvels At JD Vance’s Lead In 2028 GOP Primary: ‘The Only One Ever’ first appeared on Mediaite.
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