L: Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo; R: AP Photo/Tony Dejak, File
The Cook Political Report shifted the Ohio governor’s race in Democrat Amy Acton’s favor Friday, noting the fallout from a controversial attack ad from her Republican opponent, Vivek Ramaswamy.
The Ramaswamy campaign ad featured Acton’s estranged mother Donna Arthur lambasting her daughter as a “liar” and urging viewers not to vote for her. Acton has publicly spoken about her troubled childhood for years, well before she ran for office, including the reason her mother lost custody: documented neglect and abuse, most horrifically, Acton’s stepfather sexually abusing her from the ages of 9 to 12. Arthur sided with her husband against her daughter; he fled the state after being indicted and remained a fugitive until his death. Arthur stayed married to him and Acton has not spoken to her since she was 12.
Ramaswamy’s ad drew swift and vociferous condemnation from a chorus of bipartisan voices, with many prominent conservatives declaring the ad made them more sympathetic towards Acton. National Review and other media outlets dug up the legal documents confirming Acton’s story, all of which increased the criticism of Ramaswamy, but the Republican’s campaign doubled down in their defense of the ad, continuing to attack Acton as a “serial fabulist” and dropping several million dollars to put the ad on television across Ohio.
As the week has gone on, President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ramaswamy have continued to defend the ad.
Before the national outrage about the ad, Ramaswamy was already slipping behind Acton in the polling. CNN data guru Harry Enten marveled at Ramaswamy’s “worst this century” polling among Ohio independents the day before the ad was shared. Several prediction markets showed Ramaswamy’s chances of winning the race cratering in the wake of the backlash.
On Thursday, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a project of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, moved the race from Toss-Up to Leans D, expressly pointing to the ad as a heavy weight dragging Ramaswamy down.
Cook Political Report followed suit on Friday,
Cook’s Jessica Taylor wrote in her analysis of the race that the downward “trajectory” of Ramaswamy’s declining odds had “been clear to us for the last few weeks,” and the decision to go forward with this ad “confirmed that the race is slipping away from him — and perhaps creating some collateral damage for fellow Republicans on the way.”
The ad “was swiftly condemned by the most high-profile Republicans in the state,” Taylor continued, detailing the facts that have come to light about Arthur’s fractured relationship with her children.
“We are moving this race from Toss Up to Lean Democrat,” wrote Taylor.
Also on Friday, Cook moved their forecasts for 19 House seats to the left, part of an ongoing trend over the last few months as election prognosticators keep predicting more and more races are winnable for Democrats.
The vast majority of Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings shifts during the past few months have also been in the Democrats’ direction, including 13 U.S. House races and the Georgia Senate race in July, three other open gubernatorial races in early September, and two U.S. Senate races and two gubernatorial races at the beginning of this month.
The post Ohio Gov Race Moves from Toss Up to LEAN D After Ramaswamy Ad Backlash: Cook Political Report first appeared on Mediaite.
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