Balgarianovinite.com
(AP Photo/LM Otero)
If you’re a betting man or woman who has a hunch Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) will find a way to win her Senate bid, now is your time to strike.
That’s because the betting markets have pretty much said Crockett is guaranteed to lose to State Representative James Talarico (D-TX) on Tuesday in the Democratic primary in Texas.
Talarico has an 88% chance of emerging victorious when the polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time, according to Polymarket. He’s an even bigger favorite on Kalshi, where Talarico has a 90% chance to win, and Crockett is pegged at only 11%.
That means if you placed a $100 bet on Crockett and she pulled it off, you’d win $910.
.@Polymarket – Texas Senate Primaries (chance of winning)
James Talarico: 88% (+27) ← new high
——Ken Paxton: 82% (+10)
(+/- change vs Feb. 16) https://t.co/qPu9E9g6xq pic.twitter.com/Pvt5JiL001
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 3, 2026
Crockett received a last-minute endorsement from ex-Vice President Kamala Harris last week, who recorded a supportive robocall message urging Texas liberals to vote for her.
Talarico’s campaign, meanwhile, has highlighted praise that former President Barack Obama gave him last year. Obama dubbed Talarico “a really talented young man.”
The 36-year-old Talarico made headlines in recent weeks after The Late Show host Stephen Colbert claimed CBS told him not to broadcast their interview. CBS said that the claim was not true and that the network had told Colbert he would need to interview Crockett as well in order to comply with the FCC’s Equal Time rule.
“He just comes across [as] a more genuine guy. He’s more electable,” one 72-year-old primary voter told The New York Times about Talarico on Tuesday.
Either Talarico or Crockett will face the Republican primary winner in November. Those candidates include incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX), and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
One guy who likely didn’t place a few bucks on Crockett, though: former Saturday Night Live star Bowen Yang. He agreed with friend and fellow comic Matt Rogers in January when he told Democrats “don’t waste your money” by contributing to Crockett’s Senate campaign. Yang later walked those comments back when he was accused of “anti-Blackness.”
The post Prediction Markets All But Write Off Jasmine Crockett in Texas Dem Primary first appeared on Mediaite.
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