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Fox Business’s Big Money Show panel discussed the economic implications of President Donald Trump’s ongoing war in Iran on Thursday and the reports that he’s eyeing one “final blow” against the country.
“U.S. officials say that Iran’s war machine has been hammered, with more than two-thirds of its missile, drone, and naval capabilities either damaged or destroyed. The Pentagon is preparing options for a ‘final blow,’ while Iran is threatening to close the Red Sea,” began host Taylor Riggs.
“The president says that Iran is begging for a deal, and two Iranian officials were removed from the target list. So, with a damaged regime, the question really for investors is: is the posturing getting us closer to a negotiation, or is this more of an escalation of this conflict? Charles, that’s sort of where we’ll go to you. I was looking at the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq — we’re not close; we’re about 5–6% down since this conflict started. So we’re not in correction territory, but inching closer when you think of some of the drawdowns,” Riggs concluded, turning to Charles Payne for his analysis.
“Yeah, I mean, honestly, I always say investors are a lot smarter now all around than they ever were before, and many are resisting the urge to just out-and-out panic — although within the market itself there are all the narratives that are working, right? The software collapse is just amazing; has nothing to do with this conflict. But there are some intriguing things happening in the market,” offered Payne, adding:
I think it was Deutsche Bank — they’ve got a good survey, and it shows only 3% of investors think this will be resolved this month; there’s only a couple of days left. But over 50% think April, and then another big chunk thinks by May.
So investors are just sort of marking time. It’s one of these things — to your point — maybe a couple more headline shocks, boots on the ground, this kind of thing. But I think investors are trying to look through this — the same thing, ironically, that we would like to see Powell do with respect to Federal Reserve policy: look through this. Investors, for the most part, are looking through it. Although I will say, Monday was the first day in almost three years where retail investors were net sellers instead of buyers in the market.
“Interesting. So, Dagan, I wanted to come to you on two points,” Riggs added, bringing in Dagen McDowell, who quipped, “I’m into big beautiful boats of oil — how about that now? Iran’s gift — did you hear President Trump say that?”
“Yeah, plus two, plus Pakistani flag boats sailing oil through the Strait of Hormuz. I digress,” she added.
“So we could talk about that being precedent. But what I was thinking about the market — and I did this for you — for every $5 the government receives in tax revenue, $1 is going to service the national debt. Those headlines make me nervous, plus this headline: the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped up to 6.38% last week, according to Freddie Mac — that is now the highest since September 4th of last year. So when we’re thinking about market positioning with rising rates and rising mortgage rates, the question is sort of the appetite for Americans, for everyday people, to understand again the willingness to see this through or not. Your thoughts?” Riggs asked.
“I don’t think that this compromises in any way, shape, or form President Trump’s willingness to see it through,” Dagen replied, adding:
And I’ll note that the 10-year bond yield is back up today — it’s at 4.38% plus. And that “for every $5 we’re spending $1 servicing the national debt” — that’s Torsten Slock’s Daily Spark blog post. So debt service payments are rising, mortgage rates are rising, and longer-term interest rates are rising — and this is in spite of having three government entities — Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Reserve — all buying debt to keep interest rates under control.
The Federal Reserve started expanding its balance sheet, reversing course on December 1st. The balance sheet has grown by about $120 billion since early December, back to $6.66 trillion — the triple sixes, that’s an accident — up about 2%, not much.
And then Fannie and Freddie have started buying, at the direction of President Trump, $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. But this is all to prevent rates from going up, because in an untouched market, the U.S. government — and by extension, consumers and borrowers across the nation — would have to pay higher rates to attract more buyers, given the amount of treasury debt being issued to finance our debt.
And you have to ask the question: does Iran know that we cannot stay in this conflict in perpetuity? Can we even stay in this conflict for a year if it’s $2 billion a day? Where’s that going to come from? The U.S. is hamstrung by its ability to take on new debt, as our credit card is, in essence, beginning to be maxed out. And I’ll also point to the issue: we’re $39 trillion in debt right now, and that is growing. Our liabilities have completely swamped our assets in this country. I could continue to go on, but the only thing that matters is: is our economy growing faster than our debt?
Watch the clip above via Fox Business.
The post Fox Host Warns Iran Knows Trump Can’t Keep War Going Indefinitely, US is ‘Hamstrung’ By Debt first appeared on Mediaite.
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