L to R: Zohran Mamdani (AP Photo/Seth Wenig); Andrew Cuomo (AP Photo/Seth Wenig); Curtis Sliwa (AP Photo/Hans Pennink, File).
The New York City mayoral election is Tuesday but according to several major online betting markets, the game is over, with Zohran Mamdani the runaway favorite.
Mamdani, a self-proclaimed Democratic socialist defeated former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary this summer. Cuomo then decided to take another swing at Mamdani by running as an independent. The two are also facing Republican Curtis Sliwa.
Despite being the registered Republican in the race, perennial candidate Sliwa has floundered in the polls and several prominent Republicans have endorsed Cuomo, called for Sliwa to drop out, or both.
Current NYC mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the Democratic primary in April, switched to independent, and then exited the race altogether in late September, too late for his name to be taken off the ballot. Adams has also endorsed Cuomo.
Monday’s betting markets showed just how strong gamblers view Mamdani’s chances, with several major sites giving him a more than 90% chance of victory.
Polymarket gave Mamdani a 92% chance of winning, as well as predicting he would be the strong favorite in four of the city’s five boroughs — all but the most heavily-GOP, Staten Island.
Cuomo had an 8% chance with Polymarket’s bettors. Sliwa was basically nonexistent, falling below 1% and ranking below Adams’ own less than 1% score.
Screenshot via Polymarket.
PredictIt had similar results with the price of betting Mamdani would win at $0.90, Cuomo at $0.15, and Sliwa at $0.01. The red beret-ed Republican did manage to slightly overtake the former candidate Adams here, at least.
Screenshot via PredictIt.
PredictIt’s bettors aren’t just bullish on Mamdani’s victory; they’re betting he’ll win big. Betting Mamdani will win by 24% or more is going for $0.22. The chart below shows a strong number of bettors believing he’ll win by at least 20 points and the vast majority expecting him to have a double-digit win.
Screenshot via PredictIt.
“The New York City mayoral race has officially moved from competitive to lopsided — and the betting markets are treating it as all but decided,” with Mamdani as “a prohibitive favorite,” wrote Ben Mendelowitz at VegasInsider.
Mamdani improved his fortunes over the past few months, Mendelowitz wrote, “rising from a coin flip in June (54.5%) to a dominant 97.0% probability,” while “Cuomo’s odds collapsed, dropping from 47.6% to single-digit longshot (8.8%), and “Sliwa remains a deep longshot, holding steady in the 1–3% range.”
“With Mamdani sitting at 97% implied probability, the betting market views this race as essentially over,” he added. “Polls may continue to fluctuate, but the money is speaking loudly,” and Mamdani “is the overwhelming betting favorite” to win the election.
The post NYC Mayor’s Race Is Over, According to Betting Markets: ‘The Money Is Speaking Loudly’ first appeared on Mediaite.
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