Balgarianovinite.com UniCredit Bulbank has revised up its inflation forecast for Bulgaria for 2026. The update appears in the bank’s latest Quarterly Macroeconomic Review for the first quarter of 2026, published on the UniCredit Bulbank website on Friday. In the review, average annual inflation is projected to accelerate to 5% in 2026 before gradually entering a disinflationary path, declining to 4% in 2027 and further to 3.1% in 2028.
The report reads: “While fiscal consolidation measures are expected to help ease inflationary pressures over the forecast horizon, the new shock to energy commodity prices has altered the near-term inflation trajectory. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in energy prices so far this year, which, according to our estimates, will generate substantial second-round effects on food prices and core inflation over the coming quarters. We expect the pass-through of the cost shock to consumer prices to peak in 2027, before gradually diminishing during 2028.”
The report cites data from the National Statistical Institute for May and June, which pointed to a significant decline in food prices, suggesting that the measures introduced by the government successfully curbed unfair trading practices. This led to stronger-than-expected disinflationary effect on food prices.
UniCredit Bulbank expects the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) to be abrogated in 2029. According to the bank’s projections, the general government deficit on an accrual basis is expected to widen to 4.8% of GDP in 2026. Fiscal consolidation measures are expected to reduce the budget deficit to around 3.8% of country’s GDP in 2027 and further to 3.3% in 2028. Such an outcome would create the conditions for the abrogation of the EDP in the first half of 2029 and would also allow for a partial rebuilding of fiscal buffers needed to respond to potential future economic shocks.
Real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 2.5% in 2027, from 2.9% in 2026. The main factor behind the easing in economic activity next year will be the slower growth of private consumption. On the one hand, the planned fiscal consolidation and the associated restraint in public sector wage expenditure are expected to lead to a gradual moderation in wage growth and household disposable income. UniCredit Bulbank Revises Up Inflation Forecast to 5% in 2026 2026 THE NEWS FROM BULGARIA – NEWS AGENCY 2009-2025 2026-07-25 12:04:18 Latest news World news Country news Most important news latest news most important latest of the day Justice Petar Nizamov Feathers Petar Nizamov- Feathers Justice bg iustitia.bg iustitia iusticia usticia investigation Burgas Bulgaria news news of the last hour news of the day news of today Bulgaria news The news from Bulgaria blitz news top news most important most commented latest news Boyko Borisov news weather coronavirus news news weather facebook youtube facebook instagram news today news of the last minutes news today today news news bg news leading news hot news bg news site for news all news news bg news of the last hour latest latest news bg news of today news today news today news of the last hour latest news today news bg news news 24 hours news vesti bg novini news world bird bg bivol bg bivol trud bg novini latest news today novinite bg news hello bulgaria political party coat of arms delyan peevski scandalous Bulgarian National Television Free Europe Television scandal exclusive live tv live right now tv tv online tv program bg live now tv news online tv online live court Burgas court Burgas district court Burgas court Burgas district court Burgas district court Burgas appellate court Burgas prosecutor Burgas prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Prosecutor General Ivan Geshev Prosecutor Geshev Tsatsarov Ministry of Internal Affairs Burgas ODMR Burgas ODPR Burgas police Burgas district police Burgas prosecutor Tsatsarov SGS cases Varna court chairman of the SGS court decisions on civil cases decisions on cases Plovdiv court decision of the court decisions cases Varna court criminal cases district district court decisions work in the court SGS chairman of the SGS judges Sofia court post judges Plovdiv court Plovdiv judges Plovdiv Supreme Court Inspectorate Supreme Court Supreme Judicial Council lawyer lawyer criminal cases lawyer civil cases lawyer marriage cases lawyer administrative criminal law criminal process civil law civil process administrative law constitutional law