Presidential candidate Iliana Iotova and running mate Kiril Valchev lead in two hypothetical runoff scenarios, a nationally representative Sova Harris poll published on Tuesday suggests.
The survey concerns the presidential election on October 25, 2026. In a hypothetical runoff against presidential candidate Andrey Gurov and running mate Georgi Kandev, the Iotova-Valchev ticket would receive 65.8% of the vote, compared with 34.2% for their opponents.
In a hypothetical runoff against presidential candidate Kostadin Kostadinov and running mate Petar Volgin, Iotova-Valchev would receive 72.7%, compared with 27.3% for Kostadinov-Volgin.
Expected turnout, based on respondents’ stated intentions, stood at 38.1%, about 2 percentage points below turnout in the 2021 election, Sova Harris said. A runoff would be required at that turnout level, as Bulgarian law requires more than half of eligible voters to participate for a president to be elected in the first round.
Among respondents who had decided to vote, 49.2% said they would support Iotova-Valchev, while 24.8% backed Gurov-Kandev. The Vazrazhdane-backed Kostadinov-Volgin ticket had 9.5%, leaving it well short of a runoff place in Sova Harris’s assessment.
Presidential candidate Radostin Vasilev and running mate Krasimir Manov had 3.1% support. Presidential candidate Ivelin Mihaylov and running mate Yuliana Mateeva had 2.6%, followed by presidential candidate Ivan Hristanov and running mate Stoyanka Cherkezova with 1.9%.
Sova Harris estimated the potential electoral ceiling for Iotova-Valchev at around 1.5 million votes, compared with 600,000 for Gurov-Kandev and 400,000 for Kostadinov-Volgin. Preferences could still shift before the campaign ended, but the agency currently saw no indication that any candidate could attract a surge of support beyond the levels already declared.
On Bulgaria’s position in Europe, 47.7% favoured an approach combining loyalty to European partners with the defence of national interests. Another 36.4% said Bulgaria should be guided solely by its own interests, while 10.5% said it should follow decisions by European institutions.
Regarding the presidency, 49.8% expected the institution to act primarily as a check on power, compared with 37.7% who saw its main role as a balancing force.
Asked about rising prices in Bulgaria, 47.5% cited domestic political factors, while 37.2% pointed to external circumstances. Sova Harris said the figures suggested that a substantial share of the public linked price increases primarily to domestic economic and political developments.
The survey also found that 45.2% expected the government to ensure conditions for a fair and democratic election, while 24% did not and 30.8% were undecided.
The survey was conducted from October 13 to 17, 2026, among 1,000 Bulgarian adults through standardized face-to-face interviews in their homes. It was commissioned by Trud News newspaper. The maximum margin of error was 3.1 percentage points for a 50% share at a 95% confidence level.
Sova Harris Poll Gives Iotova-Valchev 65.8% in Hypothetical Presidential Runoff, Gurov-Kandev 34.2% 2026 THE NEWS FROM BULGARIA – NEWS AGENCY 2009-2025 2026-10-20 09:38:00
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BULGARIA NEWS – NEWS AGENCY 2009–2026 2026-10-20 09:38:00
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