The presidential ticket of Iliana Iotova and Kiril Valchev is supported by 47.3% of voters ahead of the presidential election this Sunday, while the tandem of Andrey Gurov and Georgi Kandev has the backing of 30.6%, shows a nationwide survey by the Market Links polling agency unveiled on Wednesday.
The survey was conducted between October 13 and 19 among 1,006 people aged over 18 across the country, using face-to-face interviews and an online questionnaire. It was co-funded and assisted by bTV.
With projected first-round voter turnout of between 37% and 41%, Iotova and Valchev would receive just under half of the valid votes. Gurov and Kandev would finish second and qualify for the election’s second round on November 1.
According to the survey, Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin receive 10.3% support, which would put them in third place. This is double the electoral backing enjoyed by their Vazrazhdane party. The other tickets poll below 5%. A further 3.8% of voters would select the “None of the above” option, meaning they would cast a vote without supporting any of the candidates. These votes are excluded from the calculation of candidates’ shares. No ticket secures more than half of the votes, according to the survey.
Under the Constitution, a presidential ticket will be considered election winner after a single round of voting if it garners more than half of the vote and if turnout is more than 50%.
Looking at political ratings, Market Links has found that Prime Minister Rumen Radev’s net public approval – that is, trust score minus distrust score – has declined every month since May, falling from +34 points to +1 in October. The agency notes that five months after taking office, the cabinet has a higher level of distrust than trust, at 41% against 36%. This represents a further four-point decline in its net rating following the balanced result recorded in September. The pollsters add that while confidence in the National Assembly remains at the previous month’s level of 18%, distrust has risen to 64%, up from 58% in September and 51% in July.
As regards confidence in and distrust of political leaders, Prime Minister Rumen Radev remains the only one with a nominally positive net rating. Radan Kanev and Assen Vassilev both have net ratings of around -50 points.
Presidential candidate Kostadin Kostadinov continues to enjoy relatively high levels of confidence during the campaign, significantly exceeding his party Vazrazhdane’s electoral support and indicating his potential to attract votes in a direct contest, Market Links says. The co-leaders of Democratic Bulgaria, Ivaylo Mirchev and Bozhidar Bozhanov, have confidence ratings similar to those of GERB leader Boyko Borissov, but substantially different levels of distrust. Distrust of Borissov stands at 79%. Movement for Rights and Freedoms leader Delyan Peevski has the lowest net rating, at -85 points, due to the highest level of distrust, the pollsters say.
Market Links notes that a majority of Bulgarian society, 68%, leans towards the view that attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea pose a very serious threat to national security. A further 17% take a middle position, while 15% lean towards the view that the risks are being exaggerated. Opinions on who is responsible point more towards Russia, although more than a quarter believe Ukraine itself is behind the attacks.
Iotova-Valchev Ticket Leads Presidential Race with 47.3% Support, Gurov-Kandev Tandem Follows with 30.6% – Market Links Poll 2026 THE NEWS FROM BULGARIA – NEWS AGENCY 2009-2025 2026-10-21 15:23:12
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BULGARIA NEWS – NEWS AGENCY 2009–2026 2026-10-21 15:23:12
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