Presidential candidates Iliana Iotova and Kiril Valchev have the support of 41.4% of voters who intend to cast a ballot in Bulgaria’s October 25 presidential elections, while Andrey Gurov and Georgi Kandev are backed by 21.9%, according to a Market Links poll released on Wednesday.
The nationally representative quantitative survey was conducted among 1,006 people aged 18 and over between September 22 and 29 through face-to-face interviews and an online questionnaire. It was jointly financed and conducted by the bTV private national television channel and the Market Links polling agency.
Presidential Election
Following Iotova and Valchev with 41.4% and Gurov and Kandev with 21.9%, Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin have 6.4% support, followed by Ivelin Mihaylov and Yuliana Mateeva with 3.9%. Radostin Vasilev has 1.6% and Ivan Hristanov 0.9%, while other candidates collectively receive 3.7%.
A sizeable 20.4% of those intending to vote have yet to decide which presidential ticket to support.
Declared mobilization for the presidential election is slightly lower than for a hypothetical early parliamentary election. Some 46% say they are firmly determined to vote in the presidential election, compared with 48% in a parliamentary election, while 12% say they definitely would not vote, compared with 9%, respectively.
Parliamentary Voting Intentions
Asked how they would vote in a parliamentary election, 34.6% of respondents who are firmly determined to vote support Progressive Bulgaria. The second-largest force in the current Parliament, GERB-UDF, receives 10.3%, followed by Continue the Change with 9%, Democratic Bulgaria with 7.2%, Vazrazhdane with 5.4% and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) with 4.5%.
The ranking differs somewhat from the current composition of Parliament. MRF, currently the third-largest parliamentary force, ranks sixth among the parliamentary parties in the poll. Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria have switched places, while Vazrazhdane moves ahead of MRF.
The share of undecided respondents has increased from 14% to 18%.
Trust in Government and Country’s Direction
The survey also registers changes in public confidence in Prime Minister Rumen Radev and his government.
Radev has the confidence of 44% of respondents in September, while 39% say they do not trust him. In July, his trust rating stood at 50%, against 33% distrust.
Four months after taking office, the Radev Cabinet has the confidence of 39% of respondents, while 40% express distrust.
Among other political figures measured in the survey, MRF leader Delyan Peevski has 6% trust and 89% distrust. Democrats for Strong Bulgaria (DSB, part of Democratic Bulgaria coalition) leader Atanas Atanassov has 8% trust and 72% distrust, while GERB leader Boyko Borissov has 13% trust and 76% distrust.
Continue the Change leader Assen Vassilev has the confidence of 15% of respondents and the distrust of 73%. Democratic Bulgaria co-leaders Ivaylo Mirchev and Bozhidar Bozhanov each have 10% trust, against 66% and 61% distrust, respectively. Vazrazhdane leader Kostadin Kostadinov has 18% trust and 65% distrust.
Trust in the National Assembly stands at 18%, compared with 59% distrust.
The survey also shows a worsening assessment of the direction in which Bulgaria is heading for a fourth consecutive month. The share of respondents who believe the country is developing positively has fallen to 16%, while negative assessments have risen to 60%, the highest level since the April early parliamentary elections.
According to Market Links, the indicator has returned to levels last seen in mid-2025, suggesting that the post-election increase in optimism is dissipating before the Radev Cabinet has completed its first six months in office.
The pollsters said perceptions of declining living standards amid rising prices remain the main factor behind increasing economic concerns. These concerns are being directed towards the government, although many respondents recognize that the situation is also strongly influenced by developments outside Bulgaria, Market Links said.
Iotova, Valchev with 41.4% Support among Decided Voters, Gurov, Kandev 21.9% – Market Links Poll 2026 THE NEWS FROM BULGARIA – NEWS AGENCY 2009-2025 2026-09-30 16:08:16
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