There is a growing risk of the Bulgarian economy being cut off from its foreign markets. Cargo ships sunken recently in the Black Sea close to the country’s coastline have already pushed insurance costs high up, making shipping more expensive. The big danger is that if the attacks continue, they can jeopardize shipping to a point where it grinds to a halt, much like what has happened in the Strait of Hormuz, where the movement of ships is practically blocked, says Latchezar Bogdanov, chief economist at the Institute for Market Economics (IME), in an analysis published on the IME website on October 16.
Bogdanov notes that maritime transport is essential for the Bulgarian economy. Over 28 million tonnes of goods were imported and exported through the country’s Black Sea ports in 2025, and during the last decade the annual volume has ranged between 26 million and 32 million tonnes. About 46% of goods imported by sea are bulk liquid products, mainly fuels and chemicals, and 28% are bulk solid cargo such as coal, ores and ore concentrates, construction materials, fertilizers and metal scrap. Bulgaria’s maritime exports are dominated by bulk solid goods (60%), while bulk liquid goods account for around 20%. Approximately 10% of imports and exports are transported in large containers. In the first half of 2026 cargo handled by Bulgarian seaports grew by 17% compared with the first six months of 2025.
Key enterprises and entire sectors of the Bulgarian economy depend on Black Sea shipping, among them metallurgy (Aurubis Bulgaria, Stomana Industry), the chemical industry (Solvay Sodi, Agropolychim), crude oil processing (Lukoil Neftochim), agriculture and grain trading. Sea harbours are of vital importance for the import of raw materials and the export of finished products. High shipping costs and a possible discontinuation of deliveries by sea can lead to disruptions in production, loss of competitiveness and contraction of exports, the analysis warns.
Added to this are navigation problems on the Danube River, where water levels are record low since measurements began. This has seriously impeded the transportation of goods to and from Bulgarian Danube ports, depriving the local economy of inexpensive transport of raw materials and exported finished goods. In 2025 Bulgaria’s Danube ports handled 3.9 million tonnes of cargo, and over the last decade annual volumes have ranged from 3.5 million to 4.5 million tonnes. The first half of 2026 saw a decline of 14% compared with the like period in 2025.
Worries are compounded by Romania’s plans to suspend its railway link to Bulgaria via the Danube Bridge between Giurgiu and Ruse from April to December 2027 while implementing a railway electrification project. Bulgaria will carry out a similar upgrade of its part of the bridge from April 2028 until 2030, that is, not simultaneously with Romania. This, along with the river navigation problems, will affect large industrial plants in Northern Bulgaria such as Orgachim, Prista Oil and biofuel producers of the Astra Bioplant group.
Taken together, all these barriers can undermine the competitiveness of many sectors of the Bulgarian economy. The government has so far failed to come up with a strategic response to tackle the situation inasmuch as it depends on Bulgaria’s decisions and actions, the IME analysis says in conclusion.
Black Sea Commercial Shipping Woes: Implications for Bulgarian Economy THE NEWS FROM BULGARIA – NEWS AGENCY 2009-2025 2026-10-19 15:23:25
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