Bulgaria News
Polling guru Nate Silver poured cold water on the notion that Republicans would enjoy a post-Labor Day rebound in the polls, arguing the expected shift toward the GOP simply has not materialized.
Silver made the assessment on Thursday’s edition of his Still Counting podcast after co-host Galen Druke noted Democrats were leading Republicans by roughly “eight and a half points” on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters.
When Druke began explaining the metric as the question pollsters use to ask voters whether they support a Democratic or Republican candidate, Silver cut in to joke: “I think this audience knows what f*cking generic ballot is.”
But the numbers themselves prompted a more serious warning for Republicans as Silver cautioned the Democratic advantage was broadly in line with what his forecasting model had anticipated.
“Yeah, we talked about last week how after Labor Day, pollsters traditionally switch over from using registered voters to likely voters, and our [forecast] model Flipper […] had detected that likely voter polls were likely to be better for Democrats,” he said.
The shift was therefore “kind of priced in to some extent,” he noted, adding: “But, still, to see Democrats up by eight and a half points – it can be eight or nine depending on how you round it – is consistent with what we thought.”
He continued: “Any notion of like, ‘Oh, people will come back, kids come come back to school and then we’ll see Republicans rebound because their voters will get fired up by Democrats being too left-wing or or be loyal to President Trump’ – I mean, there’s not very many signs of that.”
Silver pointed in particular to the latest New York Times poll, saying it showed a sizable difference in likelihood to vote between supporters of Kamala Harris in 2024 and those who backed President Donald Trump, while independents were also breaking toward Democrats in congressional contests.
Druke noted that a little more than 60% of Harris voters said they were almost certain to cast ballots.
“Which is why JD Vance is telling all of the Republican voters to go out and vote,” co-host Clare Malone said.
Watch above via YouTube.
The post Nate Silver Dumps Cold Water on ‘Notion’ of Republican ‘Rebound’ in Midterms first appeared on Mediaite.
Nate Silver Dumps Cold Water on ‘Notion’ of Republican ‘Rebound’ in Midterms 2026 THE NEWS FROM BULGARIA – NEWS AGENCY 2009-2025 2026-09-17 16:07:00 Latest news World news Country news Most important news latest news most important latest of the day Justice Petar Nizamov Feathers Petar Nizamov- Feathers Justice bg iustitia.bg iustitia iusticia usticia investigation Burgas Bulgaria news news of the last hour news of the day news of today Bulgaria news The news from Bulgaria blitz news top news most important most commented latest news Boyko Borisov news weather coronavirus news news weather facebook youtube facebook instagram news today news of the last minutes news today today news news bg news leading news hot news bg news site for news all news news bg news of the last hour latest latest news bg news of today news today news today news of the last hour latest news today news bg news news 24 hours news vesti bg novini news world bird bg bivol bg bivol trud bg novini latest news today novinite bg news hello bulgaria political party coat of arms delyan peevski scandalous Bulgarian National Television Free Europe Television scandal exclusive live tv live right now tv tv online tv program bg live now tv news online tv online live court Burgas court Burgas district court Burgas court Burgas district court Burgas district court Burgas appellate court Burgas prosecutor Burgas prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Burgas district prosecutor’s office Prosecutor General Ivan Geshev Prosecutor Geshev Tsatsarov Ministry of Internal Affairs Burgas ODMR Burgas ODPR Burgas police Burgas district police Burgas prosecutor Tsatsarov SGS cases Varna court chairman of the SGS court decisions on civil cases decisions on cases Plovdiv court decision of the court decisions cases Varna court criminal cases district district court decisions work in the court SGS chairman of the SGS judges Sofia court post judges Plovdiv court Plovdiv judges Plovdiv Supreme Court Inspectorate Supreme Court Supreme Judicial Council lawyer lawyer criminal cases lawyer civil cases lawyer marriage cases lawyer administrative criminal law criminal process civil law civil process administrative law constitutional law
БЪЛГАРИЯ НОВИНИТЕ – ИНФОРМАЦИОННА АГЕНЦИЯ 2009-2026 2026-09-17 16:07:00
