Expert Sees Energy Transition as Chance for Demographic Stabilization

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Fossil energy advocates have warned that the European Union’s energy transition will depopulate Bulgaria’s coal regions. The prediction is not supported by statistical data. In fact, the energy transition can help reverse the population collapse in these areas, provided that an appropriate policy is implemented, Dr Dimitar Sabev of the Economic Research Institute with the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences says in an analysis published on the Climateka open science patform in late October.
Alarming mortality
Bulgaria has three coal regions, all of them in the south of the country. The largest one is the Maritsa East complex near the city of Stara Zagora, the oldest is near Pernik, and the third one is in Kyustendil Region. They include more than 10 coal-affected municipaities, with coal production being the sole industrial activity in three of them: Radnevo and Galabovo in Maritsa East and Bobov Dol near Kyustendil.
The geographical and socio-economic conditions in the three main coal municipaities are varied, but what they share in common is a very high mortality rate, even by Bugarian standards, Dr Sabev says. In 2024, Bobov Dol had 27.4 deaths per 1,000 population, Galabovo 23.8, and Radnevo 20.9. Across Bulgaria, the mortality rate in that year was 15 deaths per 1,000 population, which was the highest national level in the EU. The analyst uses data for the period 2015-2024 to show that excessive mortality in the coal areas was not a one-off occurrence.
Mortality in Bulgaria’s coal regions is between two and three times the EU average, which is an alarming fact, he says.
Explanations
Excessive mortality in the coal municipaities is a proven fact, but the reasons are subject to debate, the scientist says. The emigration of young people from the coal areas has been intensive for many years, and birth rates have been very low (under 6 births per 1,000 population in Bobov Dol). Due to the nature of availabe jobs, the local population is predominantly male – and statistically, men die earlier than women. Besides, health service standards and preventive healthcare in these places are not good.
In addition to the above-listed factors, which undoubtedly contribute to high mortality, another important and well-documented cause is air pollution, Dr Sabev says. In 2025, there were 55 exceedances of the average hourly safe limit for sulphur dioxide in the air in the village of Golemo Selo near Bobov Dol, according to official data collated by Greenpeace Bugaria. Using their own equipment, an international Greenpeace team found that air pollution levels in Golemo Selo were 10 times higher than the official rates. In Galabovo, air pollution is also massive and chronic.
The release of large amounts of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter into the air inevitably has consequences for human health. Sabev cites an international study which found that the burning of coal in Bugarian thermal power plants accounts for 4.8% of the country’s premature deaths caused by particulate matter in ambient air. According to international estimates, the economic cost of high mortality and high disease incidence caused by coal-fired power plants equals 0.9% of the country’s gross domestic product. Cases of asthma symptoms in children can reach 132,000 by 2038 if Bulgaria keeps the full capacity of its coal sector until then.
Coal-induced air pollution causes hundreds of deaths in Bugaria every year, but this does not impress coal advocates, the economist says. Those who believe that coal-fired power plants should be preserved argue that coal-based energy production is not hazardous to health.
Energy transition for population upturn?
The socio-economic development of Bulgaria’s coal municipalities shows that money is not the answer to every concern, Dr Sabev says. In 2024, Radnevo boasted the fifth-highest average gross wage among the country’s 265 municipalities, and Galabovo had the ninth-highest. At the same time, school students’ average national-test results in mathematics after seventh grade put them in 193rd and 146th place, respectively. Bobov Dol had the 30th highest average wage and ranked 215th in terms of school students’ maths achievements.
A shortage of education and health services, intensive emigration, negative natural population growth… The coal municipaities may be a good place to earn higher wages but not to start a family and raise children, the scientist says. Motivated by a typical sense of parental sacrifice, coal miners and energy workers ignore health risks and remain determined to make enough money to enable their children to leave home and settle somewhere else. This may be heroic behaviour from a personal point of view, but it is ruinous from a systemic perspective and should not be allowed.
In the debate on the future of the coal regions, coal advocates present the Green Deal as “a disaster” which will lead to mass unemployment and depopulation. The reality is different. The depopulation of the coal regions began long before the idea of energy transition was even considered. In 2023, demographer Nadezhda Ilieva predicted that by 2050, the population of the municipalities of Radnevo and Galabovo would decrease by more than 40% just by following the set course of events, without any additional “green” measures.
Therefore, claiming that the energy transition will trigger depopulation is putting the blame on the wrong thing. The damage inflicted by the coal industry is falsely ascribed to a positive all-European process. It is equally doubtful that the Green Deal will cause mass unemployment. Computer-generated models for Poland’s vast coal regions have shown that the real risk is a shortage of labour, not a shortage of jobs, the analyst says.
This does not mean that the energy transition holds no risk for the population dynamics and the job situation. The point is that systematic measures for building a new economic structure can turn the risk into a chance for development, Dr Sabev notes. He says that if the affected regions abandon coal use in a timely manner and adopt a new economic and industrial policy, the change will remove major burdens from the regional population landscape.
The new industrial policy rests on the specific characteristics of each area. Maritsa East has a workforce with experience in industry, a well-developed energy infrastructure and an excellent geographical location, and counts on developing clean, modern industries with a global outreach. International experience shows that transforming bleak coal areas into attractive places to live in is feasible. The most important condition is that business, science and government should work in unison, guided by the national interests, the analysis concludes.

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