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Polls have been looking grim for President Donald Trump and Republicans as the midterm elections have loomed ever closer, but a new internal poll from a Texas legislative district is a five-alarm fire for the GOP.
The polling numbers for President Donald Trump and the GOP have been brutal as his second term has progressed, with Americans’ views on his handling of the economy and immigration — topics on which he had previously outpolled Democrats — taking a dive. The president’s war in Iran has been another issue dragging down his polling, specifically because of its impact on gas prices.
Republican woes are even evident in Texas, threatening to shatter decades of GOP majority control.
In the Texas Senate race, scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is lagging badly behind Texas State Rep. James Talarico (D) in both polling and fundraising. Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in the primary with Trump’s endorsement, but it required a runoff, burned through campaign funds, and put a spotlight on the series of scandals, lawsuits, a bitter divorce from his state senator wife, and other controversies that have dogged Paxton for years.
Texas State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) has long been viewed as much more of an underdog against Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX), who, unlike Paxton, does have a substantial fundraising lead, plus far higher name recognition from years as governor and previously as the state’s attorney general. But several recent polls have shown Hinojosa within the margin of error with Abbott. Most election prognosticators still predict Abbott wins re-election, but several have notably slid their ratings to the left.
Still, Republicans have long been expected to keep majority control of the Texas House and Senate, a majority among their congressional delegation, and to keep the statewide offices in GOP hands.
And yet, Bo French, the Republican nominee for Texas Railroad Commissioner, has threatened that expected GOP sweep with a racist tweet he posted after a University of Texas at Austin football game and his even more aggressive posts defending it.
Karl Rove and several other Republicans have publicly denounced French and said they won’t vote for him. The fact that the Democratic nominee, Jon Rosenthal, actually has experience in the oil and gas industry (what the misleadingly named Railroad Commission actually oversees), which French lacks, is likely helping him win over Republican and Independent voters.
And one district in particular is looking like a bellwether for Republicans’ fate in Texas and nationally this November: Texas State Senate District 9, which covers parts of Tarrant County including a large portion of Fort Worth.
The district already rattled GOP nerves this January when it flipped blue for the first time since 1991 in a special election runoff that Democrat Taylor Rehmet won, defeating Republican Leigh Wambsganss by over 14 points.
In 2024, Trump won Texas SD 9 by 17 points, making Rehmet’s win an upset.
But a January primary runoff has far lower turnout than a November general election with multiple races drawing major media attention, so was this race an outlier?
A new poll reported by Quorum Report editor Scott Braddock may shed some light on that question.
Braddock was provided with an internal GOP poll he described as being conducted by “a reputable Republican pollster on behalf of some DC trade groups more interested in North Texas congressional races,” noting that normally he would not publish polls without revealing the source and the polling memo.
“It’s not our usual MO and it frustrates professional pollsters,” wrote Braddock. “When to do it, it’s a judgement call, for sure.”
This internal poll was conducted from Sept. 10 to 15 among 600 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 points.
In Texas SD-9 — which, again, went for Trump by 17 points in 2024 — this poll says Republicans are getting annihilated.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Talarico is winning over Republican Paxton 52 to 41; in the governor’s race, Democrat Hinojosa over Republican Abbott 49 to 40; in the lieutenant governor’s race, Democrat Vikki Goodwin over Republican incumbent Dan Patrick 46 to 43; in the Tarrant County Judge race, Democrat Alisa Simmons over Republican incumbent Judge Tim O’Hare 44 to 38; and Democrat incumbent State Sen. Rehmet over Republican Wambsganss challenging him again 53 to 39.
Braddock’s article described Rehmet as holding a “commanding lead” over Wambsganss; some commentators have noted she had recently redesigned her yard signs to remove “TRUMP ENDORSED” to now say “Puts Working Families First.”
Tarrant County Republicans have “already been battening down the hatches,” wrote Braddock, and when Mediaite reached out for comment, he shared a screenshot of a text message he got from a consultant that said, “I have never gotten so many texts about a [Quorum Report] story as I have that Tarrant county poll.”
Braddock, a veteran Texas political reporter, told Mediaite that Fort Worth was critical to watch, as “what used to be the biggest Republican urban county in the United States seems to be collapsing for the GOP before our eyes.”
“Some of it is overreach by state and local Republicans and the rest is President Trump pushing people over the edge,” he explained. “County Judge Tim O’Hare made his political career all about running undocumented people out of Texas but now he’s trying to sell himself as a ‘bipartisan problem solver.’ That’s all you need to know.”
Another longtime GOP consultant in Texas who was granted anonymity to speak freely told Mediaite this was a depressing but somewhat predictable result for Tarrant County Republicans because of the damage caused by Paxton and French — along with a comment that the situation could still get worse:
The tea leaves were there earlier in the year with the SD-9 result. Normally, Dan Patrick gets to impose his will in State Senate races, basically called his shot in the primary for the seat — and then got demolished in the general runoff. That speaks volumes. Am I surprised that R’s are down in Tarrant County? Not really, Bo French destroyed their county party as chairman. Am I surprised they’re down by this much? Yes. It goes to show the damage Ken Paxton and Bo French (who is the immediate-past Tarrant GOP Chairman) are doing to the state ticket.
Could it get any worse? Probably. This poll was in the field before Bo French decided to accuse all non-white students at a University of Texas football game of being illegal immigrants.
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The post Internal GOP Poll Shows Republicans Getting Annihilated in Trump +17 Texas District first appeared on Mediaite.
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