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L: Angie Nixon for Florida on Facebook; R: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images
During any election cycle, there are a lot of headlines that declare a “SHOCK POLL,” but the latest survey on the Florida Senate race has truly earned the title.
Florida State Rep. Angie Nixon (D) wasn’t supposed to win her primary against Alex Vindman, who outspent her by over tenfold and had national name recognition. After Nixon became the Democratic nominee for Florida’s Senate seat, she wasn’t supposed to be competitive with the incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL).
Nixon’s definitely not supposed to win in November.
That’s the common wisdom, at least. What the proverbial “everybody” says.
Less than a month ago, CNN’s data guru Harry Enten proclaimed that the Moody vs. Nixon Senate race looked like one of the few bright spots for Republicans, predicting that Nixon’s primary win meant that the race “has been taken off the board for the most part for Democrats.”
And yet, a new poll by St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics — properly weighted to reflect Republicans’ current voter registration advantage — showed the race in a dead heat, 45% to 45%.
Florida Politics publisher Peter Schorsch shared the poll results Thursday evening.
The poll was conducted from Sept. 15 to 17 with 913 likely voters drawn at random from Florida’s registered voter files, using automated phone calls and text messages. The margin of error was +/- 3.2 percentage points.
As Schorsch noted, “Republicans hold an advantage of more than 1.5 million registered voters over Democrats in Florida,” so the sample was weighted to reflect the Florida Division of Elections’ active voter numbers: 42% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 27% a third party or independent.
When poll respondents were asked which candidate they supported for Senate, 45% said Moody, 45% said Nixon, 3% picked someone else, and 7% were undecided.
The governor’s race had a similarly narrow margin, with Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) and the Democratic nominee, former GOP congressman David Jolly, in a statistical tie, 44% to 43% respectively.
Other recent polls have shown Jolly within the margin of error with Donalds, but seeing a poll have the Florida Senate race so close is a new development. The RealClearPolling average has Moody +8.7, based on three polls from Emerson (3/29 to 3/31, 1,125 likely voters, margin of error +/- 2.8%, Moody 47%, Nixon 36%), University of North Florida (7/8 to 7/17, 848 likely voters, margin of error +/- 3.8%, Moody 50%, Nixon 42%), and Quantus Insights (9/8 to 9/10, 733 likely voters, margin of error +/- 4.1%, Moody 49%, Nixon 40.3%).
(Note: Schorsch did point out an outlier poll by Change Research that had Jolly up 3 points and Nixon and Moody tied, but veteran Florida pollster Steve Vancore questioned the likely voter screen methodology.)
The St. Pete Polls survey also broke down how the two candidates fared with different demographic groups.
Nixon was the clear favorite for independents, 50% to 37%, and took a higher percentage of Republican voters from Moody than the senator took any Democratic voters. Nixon kept 85% of Democrats and got 12% of Republicans; Moody held onto 77% of GOP voters and got 8% of Democrats.
Nixon was preferred by younger voters, leading 64% to 25% among voters under 30, and 54% to 35% for the 30 to 49 cohort. Moody led 47% to 42% with voters 50 to 69, and 61% to 32% (and 4% undecided) with voters 70 and up.
Moody led among White voters, 53% to 37%. Nixon won Black voters 74% to 14% and Hispanic voters 51% to 39%.
As far as why Nixon seems to have improved her poll numbers, she remains outmatched financially against the incumbent Moody, but has likely been helped by a recent resurgence in stories about the Hope Florida scandal, with Moody facing accusations from her time as Florida Attorney General.
Nixon has also been hitting Moody hard for thus far refusing to commit to any debates and knocking her as “unelected Senator Ashley Moody.” The senator was appointed to her seat by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis after her predecessor, Marco Rubio, was picked by President Donald Trump to serve as Secretary of State.
The post SHOCK POLL: Democrat Angie Nixon TIED With Republican Ashley Moody in Florida Senate Race first appeared on Mediaite.
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